India surpasses Japan to get 3rd spot in Asia Power Index, ample potential to become superpower

The Asia Power Index measures resources and influence to rank the "relative power of states in Asia".

Asia is the fastest-growing region globally, and nearly all major international powers want to expand their horizons here. The Asia Power Index Report 2024 by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, suggests that India’s power in Asia is growing, and the country has overtaken Japan to bag third spot for the first time.

The Asia Power Index measures resources and influence to rank the “relative power of states in Asia”. The Index ranks 27 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to shape their external environment — its scope reaching as far west as Pakistan, as far north as Russia, and as far into the Pacific as Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

The Index evaluates nations based on eight thematic measures: military capability, defence networks, economic capability and relationships, diplomatic and cultural influence, resilience, and future resources. Resilience is the capacity to deter real or potential external threats to state stability, while future resources are measured in terms of estimated economic, defence, and broad resources in 2035, as well as working-age population forecasts for 2050.

India, however, is yet to reach its full potential, the report noted. India’s influence according to the Lowy Institute remains well below the levels promised by its resources and thus still has ample potential for further growth as a major power. The United States and China rank in first and second positions.

Overpopulation in India is sometimes seen as a curse, but the same has come as a boon in raising India’s power in the region. “India’s great strength in Asia is the resources it brings from its huge population, landmass, and economy,” according to the Asia Power Index Report 2024.

How is India expanding its power?

The strong post-Covid-19 economic growth pushed India’s economic capability by 4.2 points. It also grew well in all other resource measures, especially future resources, where its score increased by 8.2 points. This growth reflects that India’s youthful population may deliver a demographic dividend over the decades ahead, unlike many other countries in Asia, including rival China, that are rapidly ageing and whose workforces are contracting.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s global leadership and strategic ambition have also helped increase India’s diplomatic influence. In contrast, India’s score for defence networks declined for the third year in a row, falling to ninth place.

Cultural influence and economic relations pull back India

In comparison to 2023, India gained scores in resilience, economic capability, diplomatic influence, and military capability. However, the cumulative scores gained by all these were less than those lost in economic relationships or cultural influence. Notably, India’s overall score increased due to different weights of categories.