US Presidential Elections 2024: Expectations, Vote Counting, and Results

The 2024 US presidential election has captivated both national and global audiences as Americans vote to choose their next leader. With Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump as the main candidates in a tightly contested race, anticipation has reached new heights. As millions of Americans head to the polls on November 5, the journey to determine the winner is far from straightforward, given the complexities of the American voting system, including time zone differences, battleground states, and various voting methods such as mail-in and early voting. This article dives into the procedures, challenges, and expectations for the vote count and the possible aftermath if the result is too close to call.

1. Voting process and the impact of time zones

One of the unique features of US elections is the wide range of time zones across the country, which results in significant differences in poll closing times. The US spans four primary time zones: Eastern, Central, Mountain, and Pacific, as well as the Alaska and Hawaii time zones. On the East Coast, where states like New York and Florida are located, polls begin closing around 7 p.m. local time. Meanwhile, on the West Coast, states like California and Washington close their voting around 8 p.m. local time, resulting in a considerable delay for final vote tallies.

From a Brazilian time zone perspective, this means that while some states may be wrapping up their voting around 9 p.m., others will only finish after midnight. This staggered approach impacts how quickly preliminary results can be reported and, therefore, the projection of a potential winner. In competitive elections like this one, this time zone difference adds a layer of suspense, as even with initial projections from the East Coast, the final outcome may shift once the West Coast votes are tallied.

2. The complexity of decentralized vote counting in the US

Unlike many countries with centralized vote counting, in the United States, each state has autonomy in managing its own count. This decentralized approach means that each state follows its specific rules, methods, and timelines for tallying votes based on the voting methods used (in-person, early, or mail-in) and local regulations on vote validation.

This system’s complexity means vote-counting speed varies widely. In some states, the process is quick, particularly in areas with predominantly electronic systems. In others, especially those using paper ballots or with a high volume of mail-in votes, the count may take considerably longer. This variability is further emphasized in battleground states, where the margin of victory is often narrow, and a small number of votes can be decisive.

The decentralized nature of the US vote-counting process allows flexibility to meet regional needs but can also lead to confusion since counting procedures and timelines vary. In closely contested states, updates are often continuous until a safe margin allows reliable projections.

3. The critical role of battleground states in determining the outcome

A central element in US presidential elections is the influence of battleground states, also known as swing states. These states lack a clear majority of voters consistently backing one party, meaning they can swing between Democratic and Republican candidates from one election to another, making them pivotal in deciding the election. In 2024, states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin remain some of the most hotly contested, with their vote counts expected to play a significant role in the final outcome.

The importance of swing states lies in the fact that the US election system is based not on the popular vote but rather on the Electoral College. Each state is allocated a specific number of electoral votes based on its population, and the candidate who secures the majority of votes within a state takes all its electoral votes. In swing states, where competition is fierce, even a slight shift in the vote count could change the outcome, making these areas a focal point of the entire electoral process.

4. Early voting and mail-in ballots: a growing trend

In recent election cycles, early and mail-in voting has surged in popularity—a trend that continues in 2024. These voting methods offer convenience for voters and are often encouraged to reduce in-person congestion on Election Day.

Mail-in ballots, in particular, introduce additional challenges for the vote count. In many states, mail-in ballots are accepted and counted as long as they are postmarked by a specific deadline, even if they arrive days after Election Day. This practice ensures broader voter participation but also means that the full vote tally may not be available until several days post-election. This delay in counting mail-in ballots can lead to what is known as the “mail-in ballot lag,” where initial results reflect an early lead that may shift as mail-in votes are counted.

5. Initial projections and declaring a winner

On election night, the anticipation of results leads to early projections released by TV networks and research agencies based on statistical models and initial vote counts. These projections are vital for predicting the likely winner, but it is essential to remember they are not official and may change as the count progresses.

Traditionally, projections have been reliable in states with a clear margin of victory. However, in closely contested elections like 2024, there is a need for caution. The winner is only officially declared once the results are certified by each state, a process that may take several days. Strict verification procedures are in place to ensure every vote’s validity, highlighting the need for accuracy over speed.

6. Possible legal challenges and disputes

In highly contested elections, it is common to see legal challenges related to vote validity or vote-counting procedures. For example, in the 2020 election, numerous legal actions questioned ballot legitimacy and counting methods. Analysts suggest that if the 2024 race remains close, both campaigns will likely have legal teams prepared to contest any questionable results.

Legal challenges typically concentrate on battleground states, where the high volume of votes means that even minor discrepancies could affect the outcome. Issues such as improperly filled-out ballots, signature mismatches, and deadlines for receiving mail-in ballots are often points of contention. In extreme cases, the final decision may be left to the US Supreme Court, as happened in the 2000 election.

7. Expectations for the final results of the 2024 election

With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a tight race, the 2024 election is expected to require meticulous vote counting, particularly in states with a high number of mail-in and early ballots. Political analysts and commentators urge patience and caution for interpreting early results, as they may not accurately reflect the final outcome.

Moreover, the media and social networks play a critical role in shaping public perception during the counting period. To prevent misinformation or erroneous projections from spreading, media outlets aim to provide real-time, accurate updates, resisting the urge to declare a winner prematurely before official confirmation.

Key highlights of the 2024 election

• Time zones: Time differences across the US create staggered poll closing times, affecting how early partial results can be released.
• Decentralized counting: Each state handles its vote count independently, leading to variations in counting speed and result announcements.
• Battleground states: States such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are crucial to the outcome, as tight races in these states could decide the final result.
• Early and mail-in voting: The rise in early and mail-in voting adds complexity to the count, as many ballots may be tallied days after Election Day.
• Initial projections: Media outlets make predictions based on early data, but the official winner is confirmed only after vote certification.
• Legal disputes: The possibility of legal challenges could delay the final declaration, especially in battleground states.

Conclusion

The 2024 US presidential election is a major event that transcends national borders, influencing global politics and economics. Waiting for a clear winner is warranted by the complexity of the American vote-counting system and the importance of including mail-in and early ballots in the total count. Patience and trust in the process are essential to ensuring every vote is counted fairly, accurately reflecting the will of millions of Americans.