Yankees vs. Royals: ALDS matchups, predictions and preview

It’s the Yankees and Royals facing off in October, just as everyone predicted … in 1977. Nevertheless, the 86-win Royals are in the postseason just one year after losing 106 games.

Though much of the spotlight will be on Aaron Judge vs. Bobby Witt Jr. and the impending free agency of Juan Soto, there’s plenty more to look at before the best-of-five series starts Saturday in The Bronx. 

The Post’s Dan Martin breaks down how the Yankees and Royals match up: 

At the plate 

Getting on base 

Where do you start with Judge and Soto? In this case, it’s with their ability to get on base. Nobody in the majors was better at it than this duo, who ranked 1-2 in on-base percentage. Gleyber Torres’ strong second half at the top of the lineup has only made them more dangerous.

Witt led the majors in hits and — since we’re already talking about the ’70s — batting average. Like with everything else surrounding the Royals, it all revolves around Witt. The Royals swept Baltimore in the wild-card round despite scoring three runs in two games. 

Edge: Yankees 

Power 

OK, we started with Judge and Soto getting on base, but maybe we should have done it here, since they lived up to expectations in this department following Soto’s arrival in a trade from San Diego last offseason. Judge and Soto finished first and third in slugging percentage in the American League.

Who snuck in between them? Witt, of course.

Giancarlo Stanton has been a weapon this season and typically is especially dangerous in the postseason. Rookie Austin Wells and new arrival Jazz Chisholm Jr. have also supplied homers from the left side.

Besides Witt, Salvador Perez hit 27 homers and Aaron Boone, who called Kansas City “a scary team,” mentioned the return of DH Vinnie Pasquantino from a fractured thumb suffered in late August as a key to Kansas City making it to the playoffs. 

Edge: Yankees 

In the field 

Infield 

Hold your breath, Yankees fans.

With Anthony Rizzo likely out for at least this series with two fractured fingers in his right hand, the Yankees will have to rely on some combination of Ben Rice and Oswaldo Cabrera at first base. And trust us, Rizzo never looked better defensively than when he came back after Rice, Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu filled in for him for much of the second half.

The scoops he made on errant throws now may go for errors. On the plus side, Anthony Volpe has been very good at shortstop. Torres has been shaky at second, just as Chisholm has at third.

Witt, not surprisingly, is exceptional at short and Michael Massey is solid at second, as is Maikel Garcia at third for the Royals. 

Edge: Even 

Outfield 

For as good as Judge and Soto have been at the plate, they’ve been rough in the field, thanks to Judge playing center and Soto in right.

And the Yankees still need to figure out whether to go with Alex Verdugo’s decent glove and spaghetti bat in left or Jasson Dominguez, who has struggled in left and at the plate since his September call-up.

Kansas City’s Kyle Isbel has been solid in center, as has Tommy Pham in right. 

Edge: Royals 

On the basepaths 

Witt and Garcia both stole more than 30 bases, while Volpe is the only real base-stealing threat for the Yankees, although Jon Berti can be a factor late in games. 

Edge: Royals 

Bench 

Berti has mostly been a non-factor with the Yankees, but his speed and defensive versatility could be an asset in the playoffs. How do the Yankees deploy Dominguez? And Cabrera could start at first or be a factor off the bench. KC’s Dairon Blanco could steal a base — or two — and Hunter Renfroe has plenty of postseason experience. 

Edge: Yankees 

On the mound 

Rotation 

The Yankees got what they wanted: a healthy Gerrit Cole ready to start Game 1 of the playoffs after missing the first half of the season with elbow inflammation. Then comes Carlos Rodon, who hopes his Bronx redemption continues into October after his nightmarish first season with the Yankees.

Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt present two intriguing options who have pitched well this season. One of the two could be used out of the bullpen. 

Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans lead the Royals rotation, with Michael Wacha — who owns Judge (1-for-18) — starting Game 1. Boone called the Royals’ rotation their “calling card.” 

Edge: Yankees 

Bullpen 

There’s no late-game dominance from the Yankee pen this season, so they’ll have to hope their depth is enough. Luke Weaver took over for Clay Holmes as closer after an ugly stretch from Holmes, and the Yankees hope they can rely on Ian Hamilton, Tommy Kahnle and perhaps Jake Cousins, as well as a potential lefty combo of Tim Hill and Tim Mayza for big outs.

In eight appearances as the de facto closer, Weaver struck out 24 batters in 11 innings without giving up an earned run.

The Royals’ pen didn’t give up a run in 7 ²/₃ innings of work in the wild-card series and they’re anchored by closer Lucas Erceg, who was picked up from the hapless A’s at the trade deadline and has given up one run over his last 11 appearances covering 13 innings. 

Edge: Yankees 

Manager 

Boone has gotten the Yankees to the postseason in six of his seven years at the helm, so he seems to know what he’s doing. He enters these playoffs with a 14-17 record in the postseason.

Matt Quatraro spent five years on Kevin Cash’s coaching staff in Tampa Bay before taking the job in Kansas City in 2023. He’s helped the Royals complete a historic turnaround. 

Edge: Yankees 

Intangibles 

This is the lone postseason Judge and Soto are guaranteed together in The Bronx, and Cole is set up for an excellent postseason. Sure, the Yankees would like to have a sure-fire closer, as well as the versatile Nestor Cortes, who’s on the IL, but they are set up to win it more than in recent years. Only a young superstar like Witt could get in the way from the Yankees advancing to the ALCS. 

Edge: Yankees

Series predictions

Jon Heyman

Yankees in 4

They didn’t come this far to lose to an AL Central upstart. 

Greg Joyce

Yankees in 5

The Royals will give the Yankees a tough test with their strong starting pitching. But Aaron Judge and Juan Soto win out in a five-game series. 

Dan Martin

Yankees in 4

Aaron Boone says “be careful what you wish for” when it comes to postseason opponents, but the Yankees have had much more success against Kansas City this season than they did versus Baltimore. And the star power of Judge, Soto and Gerrit Cole should overwhelm the Royals. 

Mark Sanchez

Yankees in 5

The Royals’ starting pitching will bother the Yankees, but the offensive firepower is not close. 

Joel Sherman

Yankees in 3

I wouldn’t be surprised if, like the 2022 Division Series (Cleveland then), an overmatched AL Central team dragged it to five games because the Yankees simply did not fully assert their advantages. The Yanks have a chance for a quick knockout — will they take it? 

Mike Vaccaro

Yankees in 4

The Royals are one of the great stories in baseball and have the second-best player in the AL in Bobby Witt Jr. But the Yankees are the best team in the league and have Judge.