College football Week 7 predictions: Ohio State vs. Oregon, more picks against the spread

Conference realignment has stolen so much from college sports — rivalries, tradition, etc. — but the benefits have emerged. 

It produced Texas’ first visit to the Big House, Tennessee’s trip to Oklahoma, Michigan and USC’s first meeting outside the Rose Bowl in 65 years. 

Next week, No. 1 Texas and No. 5 Georgia will fight for control of the SEC. This week, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon will battle for the Big Ten. 

The Buckeyes have been as good as advertised, holding the nation’s largest average scoring margin (39.2), with the nation’s second-highest scoring offense and top-ranked defense.

The Ducks pass the eye test intermittently, largely struggling to meet expectations in a season that’s seen near-upsets to Boise State and Idaho. 

Oregon can’t coast on talent against the rare team which possesses even more. It can’t trust the decision-making of Dillon Gabriel — the sixth-year quarterback who continues to make freshman-like mistakes, resulting in Oregon’s 90th-ranked red-zone offense — against the pressure of the nation’s best pass rush. It can’t count on a defense that was torched by the only elite offense (Boise State) it has faced this season and has surrendered nearly 40 points per game in three meetings against national title contenders under Dan Lanning. 

Since Ryan Day took over in 2019, Ohio State has only lost once before the regular season finale. That came in 2021 against Oregon. 

Ohio State (-3.5) will return the favor against a team that shouldn’t be in the Big Ten. 

ARIZONA STATE (+6.5) over Utah

It will be another game-time decision for Cam Rising, whose coach said “there’s a chance” the quarterback could return. There’s also a chance that Lloyd Christmas will make good on his briefcase full of IOUs. 

RUTGERS (-2.5) over Wisconsin

The Scarlet Knights made multiple game-changing mistakes at Nebraska. In Jersey, the breaks will go their way, while finding lanes against a Wisconsin defense that ranks 75th against the run. 

South Carolina (+21.5) over ALABAMA

Nick Saban may have taken the defense with him. Over the past 51 minutes of play, the Crimson Tide have allowed 67 points. 

Clemson (-20.5) over WAKE FOREST

A blowout is overdue in this series, following Clemson’s back-to-back one-score wins. Wake’s 126th-ranked defense will be embarrassed by an offense that’s averaging 48.5 points against opponents who aren’t Georgia. 

Washington (+2.5) over IOWA

The Hawkeyes, coming off a seven-point performance, will have another flashback to the Brian Ferentz era in another matchup with a top-10 defense. Washington’s Will Rogers will have no trouble moving the chains against a defense that ranks 109th in opponents’ completion percentage. 

Oklahoma (+14.5) over Texas

This is too many points to lay — even with Quinn Ewers back to lead the nation’s top-ranked team — in a rivalry game that has been decided by one score in nine of the past 11 years. 

USC (+5.5) over Penn State

James Franklin hasn’t earned our trust. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 for the sixth time since 2017. Only once did they make it to November undefeated, suffering their first loss of the season on the road each time. History could repeat against their toughest opponent thus far, following a 2,575-mile trip for their first road game in six weeks. 

NOTRE DAME (-23.5) over Stanford

The Irish have had two weeks to prepare for a team that ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. Notre Dame’s past four wins against Stanford have come by an average of 26.5 points. 

Arizona (+5.5) over BYU

The Wildcats have thrived in this role over the past 12 months, winning six of seven games outright as underdogs. Arizona’s Noah Fifita — who leads the nation’s fifth-ranked passing offense and has lost one game by more than a touchdown in 14 games as starting quarterback — will have plenty of time to operate against a defense with a weak pass rush and untested secondary. 

Mississippi State (+33.5) over GEORGIA

It doesn’t help Georgia to have a heavyweight bout looming (at Texas). It also doesn’t help when the head coach picks a fight with his fans. “To be honest, I’m probably disappointed in our fans for the first time,” Kirby Smart said after Georgia’s most recent home game. “I thought there was a lack of really affecting the game crowd-noise-wise, passion and energy. … We need it to be tough on other teams to play here, but it’s not. It’s not the same as it’s been in the past.” 

TENNESSEE (-15.5) over Florida

Buy low on the Vols, following their stunning loss at Arkansas. Tennessee — which is 9-2 following a loss under Josh Heupel — still boasts the nation’s second-ranked defense and an offense averaging more than 40 points per game. The Gators’ 109th-ranked defense will be shown no mercy after last year’s upset. 

LSU (+3.5) over Ole Miss

The Rebels haven’t won in Death Valley since 2008 and haven’t earned a road win against a ranked SEC opponent since 2017. Ole Miss’ suspect pass defense faces its first true aerial threat in Garrett Nussmeier, who ranks fifth in the nation in passing yards and completes nearly 70 percent of his attempts. Brian Kelly is 10-2 in his past 12 games after a bye. 

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Iowa State (-3) over WEST VIRGINIA

This has the makings of a trap game, but sometimes the square pick is the right pick. The undefeated Cyclones deserve more respect, bringing the nation’s seventh-ranked defense to Morgantown, where the Mountaineers put up 12 points against Penn State’s sixth-ranked unit. 

Kansas State (-4) over COLORADO

How will the Wildcats contain Travis Hunter? By making him a bystander on both ends. It will be difficult for the Heisman candidate to steal the show if the Wildcats’ fifth-ranked ground game runs over a defense allowing more than 155 rushing yards per game. Deion Sanders has lost five straight games against ranked opponents. 

BEST BETS: Ohio State, Washington, Mississippi State. 

SEASON: 45-44-1 (6-11-1). 

2013-23 RECORD: 1,272-1,206-30.