National exit polls became increasingly important ahead of results

Early takeaways from the US presidential election

06 Nov 2024, 01:50 · RTE.ie

The fight between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump is expected to stay tight as results roll in, with a victor in the US presidential election perhaps not emerging until or even later in the week.

National exit polls became increasingly important ahead of results, especially in determining what were the major issues of the campaign and what demographics came out to vote.

Here are some takeaways as polls close across the country.

The candidates

When it came to support for candidates, 45% of voters nationwide said they had a favourable view of Mr Trump, compared with 46% who said so in Edison Research's exit poll four years ago.

54% had viewed him unfavourably which was an increase from 52% in 2020.

For Ms Harris, there were 47% of voters nationwide who said they had a favourable view of the democrat, compared with 52% who said the same of the current US President Joe Biden in 2020.

Support for Donald Trump was down 2% from four years ago

51% viewed the US vice president unfavourably, compared with 46% who viewed Mr Biden that way ahead of the last election.

Voters of colour

The Trump campaign put a great deal of effort into persuading black and Latino voters to defect from the Democratic Party - and there were some early indications those efforts are paying off.

That was most notable in the battleground state of North Carolina, where exit polls showed Mr Trump boosting his share of the black vote to 12%, from 5% in 2020. The republican garnered the support of 20% of black male voters, the poll said.

However, a potential problem for the former president in the state was that his support among white voters was five percentage points less than in exit polls four years ago.

In Pennsylvania, perhaps the most coveted state by both sides, Mr Trump's support among white voters dropped three percentage points compared to four years ago, Edison said - and he was down four among white male voters.

According to the Edison national poll, Mr Trump's support among Latino voters jumped 18% from four years ago, a notable figure in an election where many of the other voting cohorts appear so far to be relatively static from 2020.

Even so, white voters were on pace to comprise a larger share of the electorate than four years ago.

According to preliminary results from the national exit poll conducted by Edison, 71% of voters nationwide were white, compared with 67% in Edison's 2020 exit poll.

Gender gap

Ms Harris's campaign was looking to exploit a large gender gap in the electorate, with the hope that legions of women voters would flock to the vice president because of issues such as abortion rights.

However so far, the former president seemed to be holding onto the support of at least white women voters, according to exit polls.

Black women overwhelmingly supported Ms Harris.

In Pennsylvania, Mr Trump was maintaining close to the same level of support among white women voters that he enjoyed in 2020. That was also true in Georgia, another swing state.

North Carolina, on the other hand, showed some real potential erosion for Mr Trump. He dropped eight points among white women compared with four years ago, Edison said.

14% of voters referenced abortion rights as the major issue of the campaign

Mr Trump's campaign, conversely, paid significant attention to pulling in male voters, particularly young men, through social media, sports, podcasts and online gaming.

Early national exits showed Ms Harris picking up less support among women - 54% - than Mr Biden did in 2020 when he gained 57%.

That poll showed Mr Trump slightly edging the democrat among men between the ages of 18 and 44 and beating her solidly with men aged 45 and up

The issues

When it came to the most important issues for voters the biggest issues facing voters were the state of democracy and the economy

73% of voters nationwide said they think democracy in the US is threatened. 26% others said they felt democracy was secure ahead of the vote.

11% of voters felt the border was the biggest issue of the campaign

When it came to the economy, 31% of voters nationwide said the economy mattered most in deciding how to vote in the presidential election.

45% of voters said their family's financial situation was worse off than it was four years ago, compared with 20% who said so in 2020.

However, 24% did say they were better off than they were four years ago, compared with 41% four years ago.

The other major issues ahead of the election for voters were the issues of abortion at 14% and immigration at 11%.

The conflict in the Middle East was also an important and divisive issue for voters.

32% of voters said US support for Israel is too strong, 30% said it's not strong enough, and 31% said it's about right as it is.