US election 2024: Key swing states to watch as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck
Millions of voters who haven't cast a ballot during the early voting stage will decide on their preferred candidate, as polls struggle to predict who will be victorious
by Mikey Smith, Christopher Bucktin, Liam Doyle · The MirrorDonald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck in what polling predicts will be a knife-edge US election today, with eyes to be trained on the country's swing states as voting gets underway.
The two Presidential candidates concluded their respective campaigns with landmark early morning speeches, presenting drastically different visions for the country that appear to have completely split the voting public. Polls have presented near 50/50-level odds for months, with the dial having barely twitched towards either Trump or Harris since October.
But those polls won't matter in the next 24 hours when officials start reporting early results, and some US states are expected to be particularly decisive. There are seven in particular that will give candidates a clear path to the Oval Office - and could see the election decided before all the votes are counted.
What are swing states?
Prospective presidents can claim two different types of victory in a US general election - the popular vote and the electoral college - but only the latter truly counts. Candidates who win the popular vote have won the most ballots overall, but this doesn't translate into an outright win.
When US residents cast their vote, while they are earmarked for a particular candidate, they are really voting for "electors" who are chosen by parties that are officially on the ballot in their state, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The Electoral College - which is a concept rather than a physical building as the name might suggest - has 538 members.
To win an election, candidates must secure a majority of these - 270 in total - before their rival. Each state, usually depending on its landmass, has different numbers of electors, with larger states boasting the most. Swing states are those that possess high numbers of electoral votes and aren't historically aligned with either major party, meaning they could "swing" to either party, and "swing" the outcome of the election. They could also be referred to as battleground states.
Some states - for instance California, Florida and Texas - all award a higher number of electoral votes than the above swing states - offering 54, 30 and 40 respectively - but aren't considered "swing" states because their residents historically overwhelmingly vote in favour of one party. California, for instance, has voted Democrat for decades, and Texas and Florida are considered Republican locks.
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Which swing states are the most important?
Different news organisations and agencies may present alternating slates of states they deem could swing to either candidate, but in 2024 the following are generally accepted as battlegrounds:
- Arizona: 11 electoral votes
- Georgia: 16 electoral votes
- Michigan: 15 electoral votes
- Nevada: Six electoral votes
- North Carolina: 16 electoral votes
- Pennsylvania: 19 electoral votes
- Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
What does polling say about the swing states?
Polls for each swing state so far mirror the general relative deadlock in percentage-based chances of winning mirrored in the national race. They are largely on the cusp of 50/50, but some candidates are very gently teetering towards victory in a select few states.
The latest results - taken from the New York Times/Siena College poll - are as follows, with likely winners highlighted in bold:
- Arizona: Trump 49 percent/Harris 45 percent
- Georgia: Harris 48 percent/ Trump 47 percent
- Michigan: Harris 47 percent/Trump 47 percent
- Nevada: Trump 49 percent/Harris 46 percent
- North Carolina: Harris 48 percent/Trump 46 percent
- Pennsylvania: Harris 48 percent/Trump 48 percent
- Wisconsin: Harris 49 percent/Trump 47 percent
When will results come in for the swing states?
As with all the other states, some battlegrounds will announce their results first. This can depend on the number of votes that need counting and when laws say they must be reported.
Swing states are expected to operate on the following timings this year:
- Arizona: Arizona could take days to produce results. Polls close at 3am in Nevada and two other states, and partially in two others.
- Georgia: Midnight polls close in Georgia and five other states, and partially in two more states. This is also when US TV networks are likely to begin making their first calls of the night, in less competitive states like Kentucky.
- Michigan: All remaining polls in Michigan close at 2am, when voting will also end in Arizona, Wisconsin and 12 other states.
- Nevada: Counting in Nevada could take days. 3am polls close across Nevada and two other states, and partially in two others.
- North Carolina: 12.30pm polls close across three states, including North Carolina, where Harris is hoping to end a string of losses for Democratic presidential candidates since 2008.
- Pennsylvania: Likely to take longer than election night. 1am polls close in Pennsylvania, 15 other states and the District of Columbia, as well as partially in Michigan and four other states.
- Wisconsin: Likely to finish most counting Wednesday. - 2am all remaining polls close in Michigan. Voting will also end in Arizona, Wisconsin and 12 other states.