Hurricane Milton ‘Rapidly Intensifying’ As It Tracks Toward Florida—Here’s What To Know

06 Oct 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Tropical Storm Milton strengthened into Hurricane Milton over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and is expected to become a major hurricane before it makes landfall on the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, possibly hitting Tampa Bay—less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene moved through Florida and caused devastating flooding across parts of the southeastern U.S.

Hurricane Milton formed over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.NOAA

Key Facts

Milton is “rapidly intensifying” as it moves northeast across the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center, which predicted the storm will become a major hurricane by Monday and warned “there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts” in Florida beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Milton is forecast to become a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph before hitting Florida; tropical storms are classified as hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph and major hurricanes when winds exceed 110 mph.

The storm was about 815 miles west-southwest of Tampa as of early Sunday afternoon after winds increased to near 80 mph—up from 45 mph early Sunday morning—according to the National Hurricane Center.

Heavy rain is expected in portions of the state beginning Sunday and Monday, with up to a foot of rain possible in parts of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys.

Hurricane and storm surge watches could be issued for Florida later in the day Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Crucial Quote

“This system is ready to intensify quickly,” the National Hurricane Center noted in its 11 a.m. EDT advisory. “Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast.”

What Impacts Did Helene Have On Tampa Bay?

Helene was the hardest hit for the Tampa Bay area from a hurricane in 103 years, according to the Associated Press. Despite staying offshore, Helene inundated parts of the area with several feet of storm surge. Twelve people died in the Tampa area due to the surge, AP reported.

Surprising Fact

Milton will be the fifth hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this year, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 2024 will be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record, estimating 8-13 hurricanes, including 4-7 major hurricanes.

Tangent

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday declared a state of emergency for 35 counties, including all in the Tampa Bay area.

Key Background

Milton is expected to arrive less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene, a major Category 4 storm, hit Florida on Sept. 26 and traveled 500 miles across the Southeastern U.S., causing heavy flooding in the Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia and Tennessee. At least 230 people across six states died as a result of the hurricane, which was the deadliest to hit the continental U.S. since Katrina in 2005. Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, approximately 160 miles north of Tampa, with winds of 140 mph before it was downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved northward.