Harvard Poll Finds Harris Has 31 Point Lead Over Trump Among Young Voters

A new poll by the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School shows that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate matchup.

The same poll shows Harris leading Trump 64% to 32% among likely voters in a two-way matchup. It also found a large enthusiasm gap between young Democrats and Republicans, with 74% of young Democrats saying they will "definitely" vote, compared to 60% of young Republicans.

The Fall 2024 Harvard Youth Poll is based on a survey of 2,002 young Americans between 18 and 29 years old nationwide conducted between September 4-16, 2024.

Among other key results:

• Harris held commanding leads over Trump on several personal qualities and issues, such as empathy (+33), relatability (+24), honesty (+22), climate change (+32), abortion (+31), health care (+26), and gun violence prevention (+25) among all young adults.
• Harris's job approval as Vice President has significantly improved from 32% in a similar spring poll to 44% now.
• Only 6% of those surveyed viewed Project 2025 favorably compared to 48% who viewed it unfavorably.
• The survey found that 53% of young adults had seen memes about Harris online in the last month, and 34% said they positively influenced their opinion of her. Conversely, 56% had encountered memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception of him.
• The gender gap is widening over the difference between male and female support for Biden found in the spring Harvard poll. This fall, among likely male voters, 53% favor Harris and 36% prefer Trump. But among likely female voters, Harris leads by 70% to 23%.

"This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch," said John Della Volpe, IOP Polling Director, in a news release. "Vice President Harris has strengthened the Democratic position among young voters, leading Trump on key issues and personal qualities. Gen Z and young millennials' heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024."

Harris has quickly been able to achieve large gains over President Joe Biden's position earlier in the election cycle. The Spring 2024 edition of the Harvard Youth Poll had shown Biden leading Trump in a multi-candidate field by 3 percentage points among young adults under 30, 7 points among registered voters, and 13 points among likely voters.

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"In just a few weeks, Vice President Harris has drummed up a wave of enthusiasm among young voters. The shift we are seeing toward Harris is seismic, driven largely by young women. Our poll provides a deep dive into the values of this generation that will drive them to the polls in November," said Anil Cacodcar, Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project. "Harris is enjoying a perfect storm of personal appeal, policy support, and positive reach on social media."

The poll was organized by undergraduate students from the Harvard Public Opinion Project under the supervision of John Della Volpe, Director of Polling. The survey data were collected by Ipsos Public Affairs using the KnowledgePanel. The data were weighted to reflect population estimates based on age, race/Hispanic ethnicity, education, household income, census region by metropolitan area, and primary language within Hispanics. The margin of error for the total sample was +/- 2.65%.

First conducted in 2000, this is the 48th edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, which attempts to provide a comprehensive look at young Americans' political opinions and voting trends.