Here’s When We’ll Know The Trump-Harris Election Results In Must-Win Swing States

04 Nov 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

In the seven swing states likely to decide the election on Tuesday, the timing of results vary based on laws in each state and the volume of absentee votes—with the earliest indication of who might win likely coming by the end of Election Day, when results are reported in Georgia and North Carolina, though final tallies could take days or weeks.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at ... [+] Lee's Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada, October 31, 2024. (Photo by IAN MAULE/AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

In a race this close—with polling averages showing Harris and Trump within two points of each other nationally—unofficial results could take days to come in, especially if races come down to a small number of votes in the seven battlegrounds.

The Associated Press, which uses a network of “thousands of stringers and vote center clerks who take feeds, scrape official state websites for data and electronically add up votes across the country,” is the official source used by major media outlets for determining U.S. election outcomes, which are made when “it’s certain that the candidate who’s ahead in the count can’t be caught,” according to the AP.

When Can We Expect Results In The Seven Swing States?

North Carolina: It’s likely to be one of the first states called, as the vast majority of ballots are expected to be counted by midnight on Election Day, University of North Carolina political science professor Jason Roberts told Fox Digital. Polls close relatively early, at 7:30 p.m. EST, and officials process absentee ballots once a week from Oct. 1 through Election Day. They are allowed to begin counting absentee ballots between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. on Election Day, but in-person early votes can’t be counted until polls close.

Georgia: This state will also work quickly, with most votes counted within hours of polls closing at 7 p.m. EST. Officials were allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots the third Monday before Election Day, Oct. 21, and begin counting them at 7 a.m. on Election Day. A new law passed this year requires counties to report the results of early and absentee ballots by 8 p.m. on Election Day and report the number of uncounted ballots by 10 p.m.

Wisconsin: The state can begin processing absentee ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day, and polls close at 9 p.m. EST. Election officials expect unofficial results late on Election Day or Wednesday, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

Michigan: Unofficial results are expected the day after the election, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told reporters this week. Recent changes to election laws allow officials to begin processing ballots earlier than in the past, which may speed up the results: cities and townships with populations of at least 5,000 can begin processing absentee ballots eight days before the election, between the hours of 7 a.m. and 8 p.m., while the entire state can begin processing ballots Monday morning before the election. Polls close in most of the state at 8 p.m. EST, but four counties in the Upper Peninsula are in the Central Time Zone and will continue voting until 9 p.m. EST.

Pennsylvania: The state may take longer than others to count ballots since election officials are prohibited from processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Polls close at 8 p.m. EST. Results could take several days to tabulate, as they did in the 2020 election. Wait times could be shorter since fewer voters are expected to vote by mail than they did during the Covid-19 pandemic and some counties have invested in new equipment to open and process ballots faster, Secretary of State Al Schmidt told WITF Radio in September.

Nevada: The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Arizona: The state is among the slowest of all battlegrounds to count ballots, and officials estimate it could take 10 to 13 days to finish counting, according to The Washington Post. Election workers count mail-in ballots as they’re received, but do not begin processing mail-in ballots delivered on Election Day until after polls close at 9 p.m. EST. An unusually lengthy two-page ballot that includes 13 statewide ballot questions could also delay results.

Which States Will Be The First To Report Results?

North Carolina and Georgia are expected to be the first swing states to release results, which could indicate which candidate is likely to win. Trump has a slight advantage in both states, though most polls are within the margin of error and show a virtual tie.

What Are The Recount Rules?

In Arizona and Pennsylvania, state laws mandate a recount if the candidates’ votes are within 0.5% of each other or less, while Pennsylvania also allows voters to request recounts in specific precincts where they expect fraud or error or in all precincts, if there’s no allegation of an irregularity. Candidates can ask for a recount in Georgia if there’s a 0.5% difference or less between their vote shares, and the Secretary of State’s office can order one if there are any suspected errors or irregularities. Michigan gives candidates more leeway in asking for a recount under new laws signed in August that allow them to do so if they are able to “allege a good-faith belief that, but for error in the canvass or returns of the votes, the candidate would have a reasonable chance of winning.” The losing candidate in Nevada can also request a recount within three days of the vote being certified, while North Carolina law allows them to request a recount if there’s a 1% difference or less between vote totals. Wisconsin allows candidates to request a recount if they lose by one percent or less and suspect a “defect, irregularity or illegality.”

Tangent

In a phenomenon known as the “red mirage,” early vote counts in some states on Election Day are likely to favor Trump as in-person ballots are counted, since Democrats tend to favor absentee voting and the counting of mail-in ballots is often delayed, leading to a so-called “blue shift.” At the same time, smaller, rural Republican-leaning precincts are also more likely to report vote totals before larger, urban districts. In a handful of other states like Georgia, mail ballots will be reported first, leading to a “blue mirage.”

Key Background

The election was called for President Joe Biden on Nov. 7, 2020, four days after Election Day, when Biden won Pennsylvania as the state put him over the 270-vote threshold needed to secure victory. States generally took longer to count votes in the 2020 election as large numbers of voters cast mail-in ballots amid the Covid-19 pandemic. And while early voting records have broken records in several states, the share of absentee ballots is expected to decrease this year. The 2016 election was called for Trump much quicker, by 2:29 a.m. the night after the election after he won Wisconsin’s 10 electors.