Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Near-Tie In ‘Blue Wall’ As Trump And Harris Fight For Pennsylvania (Latest Update)

04 Nov 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with the final pre-election New York Times survey showing Harris narrowly ahead (but within the margin of error) in four of the seven states, Trump up in one and a tie in two others—while an Emerson College poll out Monday showed the opposite.

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.Getty Images

Key Facts

Pennsylvania: It couldn’t get any closer—Emerson College has Trump up 49%-48%, but the candidates are tied at 48% in both a New York Times/Siena survey and a Morning Consult poll, along with three other ties last week, while Harris is ahead in polls by Marist, the Washington Post and the Cooperative Election Study, and Trump is up in a Quinnipiac poll. Trump leads Harris by 0.1 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump leads 49%-48% according to Emerson, and Harris leads 48%-46% in a New York Times/Siena survey and 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll—though several other polls show Trump ahead, including Morning Consult, Fox News, Cooperative Election Study and Marist. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a one-point advantage.

Georgia: Trump leads 50%-49% in Emerson’s polling and 50%-48% in a Morning Consult survey, but Harris is ahead 48%-47% in the New York Times/Siena poll, while Trump holds a 48%-47% edge in a Thursday CNN/SSRS poll and he’s up by a more substantial 51%-46% in the CES survey. Trump leads by 1.1 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Michigan: Harris leads 50%-48% in Emerson’s polling and 49%-48% in Morning Consult’s survey, but they’re tied at 47% in the New York Times/Siena survey, while a Marist poll and three other surveys found Harris in the lead, and Trump has a rare lead in a Washington Post poll released Thursday. Harris is up by one point in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: The candidates are dead-even at 49% in Emerson’s polling, while Harris is ahead 49%-47% in the New York Times/Siena poll and has leads in surveys by Marist, CES, CNN/SSRS and Marquette, while Trump has a roughly one-point lead according to Morning Consult. Harris is up 0.9 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Nevada: Polls are mixed—the New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris leading Trump 49%-46%, but Emerson found a tie at 48%, and Harris is up 51%-47% in a CES survey, though Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey. Trump is ahead 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Arizona: Trump leads 49%-45% in the New York Times/Siena poll and 50%-48% in Emerson’s survey, and he’s up slightly in the CES survey and earlier surveys by Marist and the Washington Post-Schar School, while Morning Consult shows a tie, and Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll. Trump is up 2.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Big Number

1.1 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

Tangent

Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters across all seven battlegrounds, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll out Thursday, a statistical tie—but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there’s plenty of room for the race to shift.

Key Background