Northern Lights Forecast Upgraded For This Weekend — Aurora Borealis Could Be Visible In These States

Topline

The Northern Lights are expected to be visible in several continental U.S. states again Friday night after powerful solar flares released aurora-causing geomagnetic storms.

Key Facts

After producing a strong X7.1 solar flare Wednesday, the sun produced an X9.0 solar flare Thursday, which is the most powerful flare thus far of the sun’s recent solar cycle; the flare that caused May’s vibrant lights was an X8.7.

Solar flares can lead to coronal mass ejections—or eruptions of solar material—which are known to cause Northern Lights sightings, and a pair of CMEs is expected to affect Earth between Friday and Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration initially issued minor to strong geomagnetic storm watches for Thursday through Saturday, but all of these watches have now been upgraded to strong G3 storms, which now extend into Sunday.

Friday night’s aurora has a Kp index of five, meaning there will be more activity as the lights become brighter and “quite pleasing to look at” if weather conditions are optimal, according to NOAA.

Solar activity has been unusually busy in recent months as the sun’s 11-year solar cycle—called Solar Cycle 25—approaches its anticipated peak between late 2024 and early 2026, with sunspots expected to intensify over the next year, and likely triggering more geomagnetic storms.

Where Will The Northern Lights Be Visible?

Though it’s hard to tell where the Northern Lights will show up, they may be the most visible Friday night in Canada and Alaska, according to NOAA (see image below). However, continental U.S. states within the aurora’s view line include Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

What’s The Best Way To See The Northern Lights?

The lights are typically the most active between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. For the best views of the Northern Lights, the agency advises traveling as close to the poles as possible, avoiding city lights and other light pollution, monitoring weather forecasts for prime viewing conditions and finding a position on a vantage point like a hilltop.

What’s The Best Way To Photograph The Northern Lights?

Smartphone cameras are sensitive enough to pick up the aurora, even when it’s invisible to the naked eye. Visit Iceland, a tourist website for Iceland, where the lights are often visible, advises turning on night mode to best increase smartphone camera exposure.

Key Background

Solar Cycle 25—the cycle the sun goes through around every 11 years—has been the cause of geomagnetic storms that have resulted in recent sightings of the Northern Lights, and NASA predicts it will continue on into next year. Cycle 25 began in Dec. 2019, and it’s estimated it will reach its maximum—when activity is expected to peak—between late 2024 and early 2026. It’s projected to peak with 115 sunspots, which are where geomagnetic storms originate. Although the maximum hasn’t happened yet, the sun’s activity has been busier than scientists anticipated, so it’s possible there will be even more geomagnetic storms leading up to 2026, though it’s difficult to predict exactly when these storms will occur.

Big Number

215.5. That’s how many daily sunspots there were during the month of August, according to the Space Weather Prediction Center. This is the highest monthly sunspot number since Solar Cycle 23 averaged 238.2 spots in 2003.