Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 307
by Andrew Richardson · MMAmania.comUltimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Bantamweight talents Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira will square off this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) at UFC 307 inside Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Harrison is very obviously the next — only? — big thing at 135 pounds. The former Judo Olympian and long-time PFL queen has lofty expectations on her formidable shoulders, but she lived up to the hype in her debut, making weight and steamrolling Holly Holm (watch highlights). Many thought that victory would earn her a title shot, but UFC has opted to bring her up more slowly, which at least creates an entertaining title eliminator here.
It feels like we’ve been waiting for a Vieira title run for some time. The Brazilian is clearly better than most of the Bantamweight pack, but she’s come up just short in a handful of competitive and important fights. All the same, turning away Harrison would be huge, and she has won three of her last four.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Harrison vs. Vieira Betting Odds
- Kayla Harrison victory: -1000
- Kayla Harrison via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Kayla Harrison via submission: TBD
- Kayla Harrison via decision: TBD
- Ketlen Vieira victory: +650
- Ketlen Vieira via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Ketlen Vieira via submission: TBD
- Ketlen Vieira via decision: TBD
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Harrison Wins
Kayla Harrison is an absolute powerhouse. Her Judo is the very definition of world-class, but she also deserves credit for developing the rest of her game. American Top Team has taught her enough wrestling and striking fundamentals to really mix it up in a smart manner, and that physicality is always a huge edge.
I’m not sure I see any reason why Harrison has to divert from the usual strategy here. Vieira has solid Judo and strength herself, but obviously Harrison has her outmatched in both regards. If Harrison wants a clinch takedown, she probably gets it within a handful of seconds. Yana Kunitskaya controlled Vieira in the clinch, after all.
It’s also not like Vieira is a particularly mobile striker or huge hitter. Harrison just has to control top position and manage her gas tank, and she’s likely to dominate at the very least.
How Vieira Wins
Vieira is a fairly well-rounded contender. Her kickboxing is rugged and effective, and she does have plenty of experience in both jiu-jitsu and Judo. As the massive underdog here, however, her game plan is going to have to be a little more complex than the usual approach.
Vieira’s jab reads like her most important weapon here. I’m reminded of one of her best wins, which involved bloodying up Miesha Tate with the jab while denying takedown attempts. Harrison is a different animal entirely, but the core idea remains the same: it’s hard to wrestle effectively when on the back foot getting one’s nose smashed in.
In addition, we have seen Harrison slow down over the course of a grueling fight with a physically strong opponent in Larissa Pacheco … and that was without a draining weight cut all the way to 135-pounds. There’s a real chance that if Vieira makes the fight continually difficult for Harrison — meaning active jabs, body shots, hard-nosed clinch wrestling and getups on the floor — that Harrison will fatigue even in a three-round fight.
Nobody is that good when they’re dead tired.
Harrison vs. Vieira Prediction
There’s not enough here for me to pull the trigger on such a massive underdog.
Vieira is an interesting task for Harrison, and I’d give her a better chance than 10-1 … but not by a huge amount. She’s been controlled too often by lesser fighters than Harrison to back with any sort of confidence. It’s just a lot more likely that the Judo Olympic gold medalist scores takedowns and rides out this victory from top position to score her first UFC title shot.
Prediction: Harrison via decision
LIVE! Watch UFC 307 PPV On ESPN+ Here!
Championship Doubleheader! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Sat., Oct. 5, 2024, with a pair of thrilling championship bouts at the helm. In UFC 307’s pay-per-view (PPV) main event, Light Heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira, goes for his third successful title defense of 2024 when he collides with No. 8-ranked contender, Khalil Rountree Jr., in a battle of ferocious knockout artists. Meanwhile, in UFC 307’s championship co-headliner, women’s Bantamweight roost-ruler, Raquel Pennington, defends against former titleholder and No. 1-seeded contender, Julianna Pena, in a grudge match dating back to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 more than one decade ago. UFC 307 will also feature the return of former pound-for-pound great, Jose Aldo, as well Kayla Harrison, Kevin Holland and so much more! It’s must-watch action from “SLC!” UFC 307’s start time is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (Prelims card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 307 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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