Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 308
by Andrew Richardson · MMAmania.comAndrew Richardson is a professional fighter who trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, Calif., providing MMAmania.com (and its readers) with expert technical fighter breakdowns, insight and analysis you can't get anywhere else.
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria, will clash with former division roost-ruler, Max Holloway, TODAY (Sat., Oct. 26, 2024) at UFC 308 from inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Topuria enters his first title defense with an outright annoying amount of self-confidence, but can anyone blame the 27-year-old “Matador” for feeling atop the world? His UFC career couldn’t be going any more smoothly. The undefeated champion is handing out knockouts with regularity and has utterly dominated all of his opponents — he’s earned a bit of swagger.
On the flip side, Holloway has been the young champion, seen rises and falls, and still emerged as one of the best in the world. Really, who has suffered more painful title defeats and blown away expectations at the highest level more than Holloway? His career is one-of-a-kind, and the Hawaiian can build on his legacy further by dethroning the first standout champion of the next generation.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Topuria vs. Holloway Betting Odds
- Ilia Topuria victory: -230
- Ilia Topuria via TKO/KO/DQ: +175
- Ilia Topuria via submission: +500
- Ilia Topuria via decision: +250
- Max Holloway victory: +190
- Max Holloway via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
- Max Holloway via submission: +2500
- Max Holloway via decision: +400
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Topuria Wins
Topuria is much more of a bull than matador. He’s not sloppy — with the exception of the Bryce Mitchell fight, in which it was clear Topuria had ZERO regard for his opponent — but Topuria excels at inching toward his opponents, backing them to the fence, then unleashing heinously powerful combinations.
Despite Topuria’s wrestling and grappling expertise, this feels like a striking match, because nobody has ever been able to ground Holloway consistently. It would probably be a waste of energy to really try, though a takedown feint or two is never a bad idea to keep the Hawaiian honest.
For Topuria, this bout is all about closing through Holloway’s varied range offense of jabs, teeps, and side kicks. Holloway is very, very good at stranding opponents on the edge of his feints and distance strikes. Topuria just had to deal with a similar challenge in Alexander Volkanovski, but Holloway has a lot more tools at his disposal.
Getting inside means taking away Holloway’s weapons. Topuria’s calf kick should return with a vengeance, both as a counter to the jab and return off Holloway’s kicks. The Spanish athlete has to be mindful in identifying the real jabs from the fakes — jabbing with Holloway could help here — and then fire when he gets his timing.
Ultimately, Topuria has to make the most of his moments when Holloway’s back is to the fence. Knocking out Holloway may be functionally impossible, but hurting him can still win the fight.
How Holloway Wins
Holloway is the greatest volume striker in UFC history, and he pairs that legendary cardio with a versatile approach to kickboxing. We’ve seen Holloway pressure and fight at distance, work from both stances, and even adjust his positioning entirely based on the opponent.
Despite being one of the most fearsome punchers Holloway has ever faced, this fight may call for an increase in pressure and aggression. Topuria has grown very accustomed to fighters feeling less-than-confident in exchanges, meaning he gets to dictate the pace and explode forward into punches.
We really haven’t seen Topuria forced onto his back foot. Josh Emmett had the power to try, but he’s never been a pressure boxer and was content to work from the outside. Holloway, conversely, has the skill, durability, and experience to try to force Topuria onto his back foot. That’s not to say he should be reckless, but there’s every chance Topuria’s counters aren’t nearly as powerful as his charges.
Otherwise, I’d really like to see Holloway pull out all of his kicking tools here. Topuria fights mostly as a boxer, and Holloway can best take advantage of that with a variety of kicks. He should be side kicking the thigh, blasting power rounds kicks from both stances, spinning, and following punches with high kicks to both sides, trying to catch Topuria slipping into his shin.
Topuria Vs. Holloway Prediction
It’s really hard to go against the fighter who looks the part of a future pound-for-pound king.
Holloway is great and still has plenty left in the tank. He has more tools on the feet and could win the fight in a variety of ways. The head kick knockout shouldn’t be discounted. Unfortunately, it’s just too hard to overlook the fact that Holloway has never been impossible to hit, and Topuria has nuclear bombs in his fists. If any combination is going to put Holloway cold, I would bet on that Topuria 2-3-2.
Bottom line: Holloway gives a good account of himself, but the speed and power of the younger champion generally lets him dictate exchanges and win the fight.
Prediction: Topuria via decision (+250)
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‘FIGHT ISLAND’ FIRECRACKER! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Sat., Oct. 26, 2024, with a thrilling 145-pound championship clash between freshly-crowned kingpin, Ilia Topuria, making his first-ever title defense against former division deity, Max Holloway. In UFC 308’s pay-per-view (PPV) co-headliner, former Middleweight champion, Robert Whittaker, will face off against the oft-injured (and ill) Khamzat Chimaev, with the winner inching one step closer to a future 185-pound title shot. UFC 308 will also feature the pivotal 205-pound showdown between Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic, the return of one-eyed Shara Magomedov and so much more! UFC 308’s start time is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET (Prelims card) and 2 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
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