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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model loves Saints, Steelers in Week 4, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 4 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

27 Sep 2024, 18:53 · CBS Sports

If you have a penchant for playing NFL underdogs, 2024 has been a lucrative season thus far. Teams favored by six points are only 1-12 against the spread so far this season and last week alone there were five teams who were at least 5.5-point underdogs that won outright. The Week 4 NFL schedule includes four games with NFL spreads of six points or more, so should you expect this NFL betting trend to continue or is this the week where NFL favorites start clawing their week back?

The 49ers are favored by 10.5 in the latest Week 4 NFL odds via the SportsLine Consensus, but the largest favorite on the schedule has lost outright the first three weeks. Should you consider Patriots money line for a juicy +418 payout? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Saints (+2.5, 42) cover the spread versus the Falcons. The last time these two teams met was in January, when the Saints layed down a 48-17 demolition of the Falcons at home. Derek Carr threw for four touchdowns in the victory and has been even better in his second season with the Saints.

Carr is completing 68.8% of his passes through three weeks and his 9.1 yards per pass attempt leads the NFL. New Orleans blew out the Panthers and Cowboys to open the season before suffering a 15-12 loss late against the Eagles last week. The model is expecting the Saints to bounce back in a big way on Sunday, predicting they win outright 60% of the time and cover the 2.5-point spread in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL betting predictions: the Steelers (-1.5, 40) cover on the road versus the Colts. The Steelers are the only team besides the Vikings who have been perfect against the spread this season and now they'll take on a Colts squad that is off to a somewhat sluggish start.

Indianapolis lost to Houston and Green Bay (without Jordan Love) to start the season and then snuck by the Bears in Week 3. The Colts rank 31st in the NFL in total defense while the Steelers rank first in the NFL in points allowed and yards allowed. Ultimately, that defensive edge is a big reason why the model has the Steelers covering the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that win outright at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.