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College football picks, predictions, odds: Pitt vs. SMU, Indiana vs. Michigan State among best bets in Week 10

Jerry Palm's best bets for this week include a couple of impactful Big Ten clashes

by · CBS Sports

One of the fun features of having way too many teams in all these conferences is the possibility of three, four, eight or some ridiculous number of teams tying for first because they don't play each other enough.

Yesterday, CBS Sports' Brad Crawford broke down a scenario of a four-way tie for first in the SEC that leaves out Georgia and Texas. It is also possible to have three-way ties atop the ACC and Big Ten where each of the teams is undefeated in conference play.
In the ACC, the tie would be Miami, Clemson, and SMU. You have to go down to No. 5 on the list of three-team tiebreakers and compare the records of their conference opponents. The rule does not specify whether they would use conference records only or overall records.

If that does not resolve it, the ACC would use a ranking from SportsSource Analytics. The ranking in question has not been in the public domain previously. After that, they draw names out of a hat. The Big Ten could go through this as well if Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all run the table. Each would have to beat Ohio State to do so, which the Ducks have already done.

The Big Ten's tiebreaker is the same as the ACC's in this situation, except that it specifies legue games only when comparing conference opponent records.

How would you like to go undefeated in conference play and not even get to play for the championship? Yeah, I'd hate that too. Each week, I use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.

I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Now that we are into October, I have expanded the other CFP candidates list to the AP top 16 plus the highest-ranked Group of Five team if not already in the top 16. Games against FCS opponents are not considered.

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Week 10 picks

Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois (+3): Illinois is a betting underdog at home to Minnesota, and I have to say, I am a little surprised. The Gophers are on a three-game winning streak, and Illinois came out of the Oregon game last week a little banged up. However, the Illini are expecting most, if not all, of their injured players from last week to be available for Minnesota. Pick: Illinois +3

No. 13 Indiana at Michigan State (+7.5): Indiana survived the distraction that Game Day can bring and beat Washington by 14. That ties the Huskies with Maryland as the teams that have come closest to the Hoosiers this season. IU hits the road to take on the Spartans, who have lost four of five. However, that win came against Iowa at home. Still, I see no reason to doubt that the Hoosiers will post another double-digit win and cover the line that sports betting apps have set. Pick: Indiana -7.5

San Diego State at No. 15 Boise State (-23.5), Friday: The Aztecs are having a rough season, at least by their standards -- though they did manage to give Washington State a good fight last week. But this week, they are in Boise, Idaho and facing a team looking to send a message to the CFP selection committees. San Diego State ranks 86th in rushing defense, so look for another big day for Ashton Jeanty as the Broncos cruise to a big win. Pick: Boise State -23.5

Upset of the Week

No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU (-7): Pitt comes into this matchup off a blowout win against Syracuse in which its defense registered three pick sixes. It is probably asking a lot of the Panthers' defense to repeat that feat, but they don't necessarily need to. What they need to do is earn the respect of the CFP selection committee. SMU is looking to do the same, of course. The Mustangs' only loss of the season so far came in a tight, low-scoring game at home to undefeated BYU. I think history can repeat itself here, but either way, I like the Panthers to at least cover. Pick: Pitt (+7)

Other CFP contenders

SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for five outright upsets in Week 10 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.