Mets vs. Phillies prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 NLDS Game 4 picks, MLB playoff bets from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Wednesday's Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets matchup 10,000 times in Game 4 of the NLDS

The Mets have the chance to advance to their first NLCS since 2015 when they host the Phillies in Game 4 of the 2024 National League Division Series on Wednesday. The Mets took a 2-1 series lead on Tuesday with a 7-2 victory that included home runs by Pete Alonso and Jesse Winker. New York scored the game's first six runs on Tuesday to cruise to a comfortable victory. Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75) will take the ball for the Mets, while Ranger Suarez (12-8, 3.46) toes the rubber for the Phillies in a must-win game for Philadelphia. 

First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. New York is the -115 money-line favorite (risk $115 to win $100) in the latest Phillies vs. Mets odds, while Philadelphia is the -105 underdog. The over/under for total runs scored is 7.5 in the latest MLB odds via SportsLine consensus. Before you make any Mets vs. Phillies picks or MLB predictions, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the second week of the 2024 MLB playoffs, it's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Mets: 

• Phillies vs. Mets money line: Mets -115, Philadelphia -105
• Phillies vs. Mets run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+160)
• Phillies vs. Mets over/under: 7.5 runs
• PHI: Returned +1961 on the money line this year
• NYM: Returned +985 on the money line this year
• Phillies vs. Mets picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Phillies vs. Mets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Phillies

The Phillies are 2-1 against the Mets in games started by Suarez this season and the left-handed pitcher has a 2.30 ERA in three starts against the Mets this season. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his starts against the Mets this season and hasn't allowed more than two runs in his last three starts at Citi Field. Suarez had the second-best WHIP (1.20) of his seven-year career this season with a career-high 145 strikeouts. Suarez has been a dominant postseason pitcher throughout his career, sporting a 1.62 ERA over nine appearances, including seven starts. 

The Phillies power-hitting trio of Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have each hit a home run this series and Castellanos has been a significant offensive force. He is hitting .385 with a 1.000 OPS and three RBI over the first three games. The Phillies were third in the National League in runs scored this season and with their season on the line on Wednesday after reaching the NLCS in back-to-back seasons, the Phillies' veteran offense will be ready. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Mets

The Mets have dominated the Phillies at Citi Field lately, taking three of four games against Philadelphia in late September in key victories toward their run to making the 2024 MLB playoffs. After Tuesday's victory, the Mets are 4-1 over their last five games at Citi Field against the Phillies and are 9-5 at home against the Phillies since 2023. Quintana starts for the Mets after tossing six shutout innings against the Brewers in the NL Wild Card Round and he hasn't allowed a run in five of his last seven starts. The 35-year-old LHP has a 0.72 ERA over that span as he's been nearly unhittable on the mound.

Alonso is playing his best baseball at the most opportune time for both the Mets and himself as an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. The Mets slugging first baseman has three home runs over his last four games, including going deep in back-to-back contests against the Phillies. New York has scored at least six runs in each of the three games this series with offensive contributions throughout the lineup, including 24-year-old third baseman Mark Vientos, who is hitting .417 with a 1.148 OPS and two home runs with seven RBI this playoffs. See which team to pick here.

How to make Phillies vs. Mets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 9.1 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Mets vs. Phillies, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks, and find out.