MLB predictions, picks, best bets: Why Fernando Tatis Jr. will hit Padres past Dodgers in decisive NLDS Game 5

Game 5 between the Padres and Dodgers awaits us on Friday night

Our first do-or-die game involving a division winner here this postseason is set for Friday night in Dodger Stadium. The last time the Padres and Dodgers squared off, there was plenty of drama that did not involve the scoreboard (which only furthers this blossoming rivalry). I expect plenty of fireworks in this one, though mostly or even entirely in the form of actual baseball action.

Speaking of action, let's grab some gambling action. 

Padres at Dodgers, 8:08 p.m. ET

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

The Dodgers are doing this thing where they think it gives them some sort of mental advantage to not reveal their pitching plan. Yamamoto will get the start for maybe for 2-3 innings with Jack Flaherty in the bullpen piggybacking him. If they truly don't have a plan due to apprehension, it's warranted. Yamamoto gave up five runs on five hits in three innings in his earlier start this series, while Flaherty allowed four runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings and got into a shouting match with Manny Machado (pitches should be the eye of the storm). 

Darvish, on the other hand, was brilliant in his Game 2 outing (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R) and is on regular rest. 

Both teams have had good bullpen work at times in the series and are fully capable of putting on a relief-pitching clinic. Both offense are capable of exploding and we've seen it from them in the series at different times. The Dodgers have scored 22 runs in four games while the Padres have scored 21 in four games and that includes zero in Game 4.

What we have here is an incredibly unpredictable game. Hoo boy! Let's get it on. 

The play: Padres +120

I had the Padres in five heading into the series and I like their pitching situation better in this one. I'm sure a lot of people are caught up in having seen Game 4 and think the Dodgers have all this "momentum," which has already meant nothing this series in Games 2 and 4. This game, for me, could really go either way and yet the Padres are decently placed as an underdog here. I think they'll win and I like the value. 

The play: Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-135)

In Tatis' regular-season career, he's played 34 games in Dodger Stadium and he's hitting .313/.366/.626 with 12 homers, 23 RBI and 24 runs. In his two playoff games there, he went 5 for 8 with two homers, three RBI and five runs. 

So far in the 2024 playoffs, Tatis is 11 for 22 with three doubles, four homers, seven RBI and eight runs in six games. 

If I think the Padres are going to win, why wouldn't I play this one? Tatis would surely be involved in a victory.