Mets vs. Phillies prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 NLDS Game 3 picks, MLB playoff bets from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Tuesday's Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets matchup 10,000 times in Game 3 of the NLDS

The 2024 National League Division Series between the Mets and Phillies shifts to New York for Game 3 on Tuesday afternoon, with the series knotted up 1-1. After the Mets took Game 1 on the road, Philadelphia used a walk-off hit from Nick Castellanos to claim Game 2 on Sunday. Aaron Nola (14-8, 3.57) will take the ball for the Phillies, while Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47) totes the rubber for the Mets in this best-of-five NLDS. Both teams made a couple tweaks to their Game 2 lineups, including Jesse Winker in as the designated hitter for New York, while the Phillies will start Austin Hays in left.

First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. Philadelphia is the -114 money-line favorite (risk $114 to win $100) in the latest Mets vs. Phillies odds, while the Mets are -106 underdogs. The over/under for total runs scored is 7 in the latest MLB odds via SportsLine consensus. Before you make any Phillies vs. Mets picks or MLB predictions, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the second week of the 2024 MLB playoffs, it's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Mets: 

• Phillies vs. Mets money line: Philadelphia -114, New York -106
• Phillies vs. Mets run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+156)
• Phillies vs. Mets over/under: 7 runs
• PHI: Returned +2061 on the money line this year
• NYM: Returned +891 on the money line this year
• Phillies vs. Mets picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Phillies vs. Mets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Phillies

In addition to the momentum that derives from a walk-off victory in their last game, the Phillies can also take comfort in the fact that Nola had his best outing of the season at Citi Field earlier this year. On May 14, he tossed a complete game shutout, allowing just four hits and zero walks while striking out eight batters. Nola is also a proven postseason performer as over his last four playoff starts, he sports a sterling 2.35 ERA, holding opponents to just a .214 batting average and has 23 strikeouts across those 23 innings. 

Speaking of players with reputations for coming up huge in the MLB playoffs, that accurately describes many in the Phillies lineup. Two-time MVP Bryce Harper owns a career OPS of 1.024 in the postseason, and he's reached base three times in each of the first two games of this series. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber has a career OPS of .922 in the playoffs, and he has six home runs over his last nine postseason games. Schwarber's 21 career home runs in October baseball are fourth-most in MLB postseason history. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Mets

Manaea had a strong outing just over two weeks ago versus the Phillies, tossing 7.0 innings and allowing 3 ER while picking up the win. Maneaa, who ranked in the top five of the NL in both ERA and WHIP in the regular season, also is more comfortable at home as he allowed a .195 batting average in Citi Field, compared to a .210 average on the road.

Pete Alonso homered in Game 2 after also hitting a homer in Game 3 of the NLWC as his bat appears to be heating up. He will certainly welcome facing Nola, as just one other batter has homered more times off Nola than Alonso's five dingers. The Mets have also won three of the last four meetings between these teams in New York, while the Phillies were just 41-40 on the road in the regular season, which was tied for the worst road record amongst the 12 playoff teams. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mets vs. Phillies picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 9.3 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Phillies vs. Mets, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks, and find out.