Yankees vs. Guardians prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 ALCS Game 4 picks, MLB playoff bets by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Friday's ALCS Game 4 Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees matchup 10,000 times

The Cleveland Guardians will look to even their best-of-seven 2024 American League Championship Series at 2-2 when they meet the New York Yankees in Game 4 on Friday night in Cleveland. The Guardians earned a 7-5 win on Thursday when David Fry hit a walk-off two-run home run in the bottom of the 10th inning. The Yankees (94-68), the top seed in the AL, are seeking to win their 28th World Series championship since 1923. The second-seeded Guardians (92-69), who won the AL Central Division, are looking to make their first World Series appearance since 2016, and earn their first title since 1948. 

First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 8:08 p.m. ET. New York is the -121 favorite on the money line (risk $121 to win $100) in the latest Yankees vs. Guardians odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7.5, with the Under priced at -115. Before making any Guardians vs. Yankees picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered the 2024 NLCS and ALCS on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Yankees vs. Guardians and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Guardians vs. Yankees: 

• Yankees vs. Guardians money line: New York -121, Cleveland +101
• Yankees vs. Guardians over/under: 7.5 runs
• Yankees vs. Guardians run line: New York -1.5 (+140)
• NYY: The Yankees have hit the game total over in 65 of their last 113 games (+16.00 units)  
• CLE: The Guardians have covered the run line in 40 of their last 79 games at home (+12.25 units)  
• Yankees vs. Guardians picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Yankees vs. Guardians streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Yankees

New York is expected to send right-hander Luis Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) to the mound. He will be making his debut in the 2024 MLB playoffs. In 151.2 innings during the regular season, he allowed 104 hits, 59 earned runs and 77 walks, while striking out 171. He won three of his last four decisions, including an 11-2 win at Seattle on Sept. 17. In that game, he pitched five innings and allowed four hits, one earned run and three walks, while striking out five.

Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is among New York's top hitters. He hit a tie-breaking home run in the eighth inning on Thursday to put the Yankees in position to take a 3-0 series lead before the Guardians rallied back. Stanton has just two hits in the series, but both were long home runs. He hit .375 in the four-game ALDS series win over the Kansas City Royals, including two doubles, one homer and four RBI. In 114 regular-season games, Stanton hit .233 with 20 doubles, 27 homers and 72 RBI. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Guardians

Right-hander Gavin Williams (3-10, 4.86 ERA) is expected to take the mound for Cleveland. Williams, a former first-round draft pick in the 2021 draft, will be making his postseason debut. In his last outing, a 2-1 loss to St. Louis on Sept. 22, Williams received a no-decision after pitching 5.2 innings and allowing four hits, one earned run and two walks, while striking out three. He earned a 4-2 win at Kansas City on Sept. 2. In that game, he pitched seven innings, allowing one earned run on one hit with two walks and six strikeouts.

Third baseman Jose Ramirez has been among Cleveland's top hitters all year. In 158 regular-season games, he batted .279 with 39 doubles, two triples, 39 homers and 118 RBI. He was 1-for-4 with a double and a walk in Thursday's win. He homered in a 6-3 loss on Tuesday in Game 2 of the series. He has hit Yankees pitching well throughout his career. In 50 career games against them, he is batting .330 with 11 doubles, three triples, 11 homers and 33 RBI. See which team to pick here.

How to make Guardians vs. Yankees picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 8.5 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Yankees vs. Guardians, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks, and find out.