Boise State vs. San Diego State prediction, odds, line: 2024 Week 10 college football picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Friday's San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos matchup, featuring Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty, 10,000 times

Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty and the 15th-ranked Boise State Broncos look to win their sixth game in a row and take control of the Mountain West Conference when they face the San Diego State Aztecs on Friday night. Boise State is looking to lock down its second consecutive conference championship. The Aztecs (3-4, 2-0 Mountain West), who are 0-3 against ranked opponents since 2020, have a minus-6.7 point differential this season. The Broncos (6-1, 3-0 Mountain West), who have won eight in a row at home, have a plus-14.5 point differential on the year.

Kickoff from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, is set for 8 p.m. ET. Boise State is averaging 44.3 points per game, while San Diego State averages 22.3. The Broncos are favored by 24.5 points in the latest San Diego State vs. Boise State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 56.5. Before making any Boise State vs. San Diego State picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it is a sizzling 16-7 on all top-rated picks over the past five weeks of this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on San Diego State vs. Boise State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines and trends for Boise State vs. San Diego State:

• San Diego State vs. Boise State: Boise State -24.5
• San Diego State vs. Boise State over/under: 56.5 points
• San Diego State vs. Boise State money line: Boise State -2941, San Diego State +1226
• SDS: The Aztecs have hit the Under 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 units)  
• BSU: 4-2 ATS this season 
• San Diego State vs. Boise State picks: See picks at SportsLine
• San Diego State vs. Boise State streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back Boise State

Jeanty leads an elite rushing attack that leads the Mountain West with 275 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are also capable through the air. Senior wide receiver Cameron Camper leads the Broncos in receiving. In seven games, he has 28 receptions for 477 yards (17 average) and four touchdowns. In a 28-7 win at Hawaii on Oct. 12, he caught seven passes for 111 yards. In a 56-14 win over Portland State on Sept. 21, he had two receptions for 70 yards and two touchdowns.

Another top target on offense for Boise State is junior tight end Matt Lauter. He has catches in all seven games, including a four-catch, 96-yard and two-touchdown performance in a 45-24 win over Washington State on Sept. 28. In last Friday's win at UNLV, he had four receptions for 38 yards and a score. For the season, he has 24 receptions for 297 yards (12.4 average) and four touchdowns. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back San Diego State

Freshman quarterback Danny O'Neil leads the Aztecs' passing attack. In six games this season, he has completed 109 of 174 attempts (62.6%) for 1,240 yards and six touchdowns. He has been intercepted twice and has a rating of 131.6. He has passed for 200 or more yards in four games, including a season-high 254 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a 27-24 win at Wyoming on Oct. 12.

Leading the ground attack is fifth-year senior running back Marquez Cooper. He is in his first year with the program after spending three seasons at Kent State and one at Ball State. In seven games, he has carried 169 times for 748 yards (4.4 average) and eight touchdowns. In last week's loss to Washington State, he carried 18 times for 78 yards (4.3 average) and two touchdowns. See which team to pick here.

How to make San Diego State vs. Boise State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 58 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins San Diego State vs. Boise State, and which side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.