Hurricane Milton: Evacuation time running out

TAMPA BAY, FL - Hurricane Milton will remain a powerful, potentially deadly and destructive force as it roars ashore in the Florida Peninsula along the central Gulf coast early Thursday, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to warn.

Milton intensified rapidly and nearly tripled in strength in less than 36 hours from Sunday to Monday, eventually becoming a Category 5 with winds of 180 mph while spinning off Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Category 5 is the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

"Some changes within the eye caused the storm's peak wind intensity to ease on Monday night, but some regaining of strength is forecast later Tuesday night," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Then on Wednesday, as Milton encounters some dry air, wind shear and perhaps another eyewall replacement cycle, it is forecast to expand in size and make landfall as a formidable Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale."

However, hurricane experts continue to maintain that Milton will strike with the impacts of a 5 on AccuWeather's RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, which takes into account storm surge, flooding rainfall, population affected and economic impacts above and beyond the Saffir-Simpson scale, which takes into account only maximum sustained winds.

Deadly, dangerous and historic storm surge anticipated

By far, the most dangerous aspect of Milton as it approaches the Gulf coast of the Florida Peninsula will be storm surge. Because of the near-perpendicular angle at which Milton will roar ashore, the storm surge will be maximized along the barrier islands and funneled into the many inland bays in the region.

“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the west-central Florida coast and the Tampa Bay area,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, "For many, Milton may be a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane in terms of severity."

A record storm surge can occur near and just to the south of where the eye moves ashore. At this time, a storm surge of 15-20 feet is forecast for Tampa Bay, as well as the Sarasota and St. Petersburg, Florida areas. The storm surge will drop off significantly north of where the eye rolls in but can be delayed and build after the storm moves inland.

Significant, dangerous and damaging water rise will occur well to the south of where the eye rolls in with a storm surge of 10-15 feet from Venice to Cape Coral and Fort Myers, Florida, and 6-10 feet possible in Naples and Marco Island, Florida.