Final phase of Jammu & Kashmir Assembly polls: High stakes, high tension

As voters head to the polls, a rise in independent candidates, low female representation, and criminal cases loom large.

The final phase of Jammu and Kashmir’s historic Assembly elections will take place on October 1. With 415 candidates, including a significant number of Independents and only a handful of women, voters in 40 constituencies will decide the fate of established political figures.

• Independent candidates: In Phase-3, 37.3 per cent of candidates are Independents, making them a dominant force with 156 out of 415 candidates. This shows a growing shift away from traditional party loyalties
• Gender imbalance: The gender gap is stark, with only 28 female candidates compared to 390 males, creating a 14-to-one ratio. Despite some progress, women remain largely underrepresented in this phase
• Most competitive constituencies: Baramulla leads as the most competitive constituency with 25 candidates, followed by Sopore and Bandipora. These constituencies are seeing intense competition and will likely play a key role in the outcome

Why It Matters?

Kashmir has seen multi-cornered battles between the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, the Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Party, and smaller parties, often complicated by a high number of Independents. In contrast, Jammu is witnessing direct contests primarily between the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party, leading to clearer outcomes in that region.

Key Seats

In Chhamb, former deputy Chief Minister Tara Chand (Congress) faces a four-way fight against Rajeev Sharma (BJP) and two Independents. Sopore is a battleground between Abdul Rashid Dar (Congress) and Irshad Rasool Kar (NC), while Handwara pits veteran Chowdry Mohammad Ramzan (NC) against Sajad Gani Lone (Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference).

In Chenani, Harsh Dev Singh (Jammu and Kashmir Panthers Party) takes on Balwant Singh Mankotia (BJP). Over in Ranbir Singh Pura, Congress Working President Raman Bhalla squares off against Dr Narinder Singh Raina (BJP). These seats will play a pivotal role in shaping the election outcome.

Middle-Aged Candidates Dominate

Most candidates (113) fall into the 40-49 age group. Younger candidates aged 20-29 are few, indicating that politics in the region continues to be dominated by older individuals.

Criminal Cases On The Rise

Across all three phases, 17 per cent of candidates have declared criminal cases, a significant increase from just six per cent in 2014. This rise raises concerns about the integrity of some of the individuals contesting these elections.

In-Depth

This phase covers 40 segments across the districts of Jammu, Udhampur, Samba, and Kathua in the Jammu region, as well as Baramulla, Bandipora, and Kupwara in northern Kashmir. The gender gap is glaring. Across all three phases, only 43 candidates are women, compared to 830 men. This puts the male-to-female candidate ratio at about 19-to-1. This means there are about 19 men for every woman candidate. Independent candidates led in female representation, with 15 female Independents. But the overall numbers remained low.

Big Picture

Age plays an important role in these elections, with the 40-49 age group making up the bulk of candidates. Smaller parties like the Haq Insaaf Party have some of the oldest candidates, with an average age of 72 years.

Among the major parties, the PDP has fielded the most non-Independent candidates in Phase-3, with 33 candidates, followed closely by the BJP with 31, and the Congress with 24.

What’s Next?

With results expected on October 8, the key trends to watch include the rising number of Independents, the low participation of women, and the troubling increase in candidates with criminal backgrounds.