Haryana Shocker: A BJP win, a Congress self-goal

So how did the BJP, written off by everyone, including privately by some of their own leaders, pull off a stunning upset against the odds and, in the face of a 10-year anti-incumbency score, a remarkable hat trick?

In Short

• BJP wins Haryana 2024 election, defying predictions
• Congress gains Jat votes but loses due to internal splits
• BJP consolidates non-Jat votes, aided by OBC support

If the 2024 Lok Sabha election surprised India, the Haryana 2024 verdict has shocked many. Rarely has there been an election where every pollster, every pundit, every reporter has failed to predict the outcome so clearly.

So how did the BJP, written off by everyone, including privately by some of their own leaders, pull off a stunning upset against the odds and, in the face of a 10-year anti-incumbency score, a remarkable hat trick?

Here are 10 key factors.

1) Indian politics is a first past the post system in which wafer-thin margins in vote share can have a disproportionate impact on seats. Haryana, a small state, is a classic example.

Consider this: the Congress vote share actually increased by 11 per cent compared to 2019 from 28 per cent to 39 per cent. The BJP vote share increased by little over three per cent from 36.4 to 39.9 per cent. Both parties had roughly an identical vote share, but the BJP won 48 seats and the Congress 37. That’s a big 11 seat gap. An unusual psephological occurrence in the first past the post system hugely benefitted the BJP crossing the half halfway mark.

2) While the Jat vote – around 25 per cent of Haryana’s population – consolidated around the Congress at the cost of the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) of Dushyant Chautala, the Congress actually lost to the BJP in many seats in the Jat heartland of Rohtak, Sonepat and Jind.

One key factor was the presence of numerous Congress rebels and Jat independent candidates in this region, many of whom ensured multipolar contests. There are at least a dozen seats where rebels dented the Congress and played a crucial role in their defeat. By contrast, the BJP was by and large able to stem their internal rebellion.

3) With the Congress under Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s leadership being seen to aggressively play up the Jat factor, there was a creeping non-Jat consolidation in favour of the BJP on the ground. This was the silent factor, almost unnoticed in the din of electioneering. Haryana has a 40 per cent plus OBC population, a key vote bank for the BJP in recent elections.

With an OBC face in Nayab Singh Saini as chief Minister, the BJP was the natural magnet for the OBC voter, not as vocal perhaps as Jats but certainly just as effective at the polling booth. Rahul Gandhi may have spoken of OBC empowerment and a caste census, but on the ground in Haryana, the party did not have OBC faces to counter the BJP.

4) In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when the Congress and the BJP were tied at five seats each, the Congress incremental vote came from the Dalit voter, around 22 per cent of Haryana’s population. The Congress’s ‘samvidhan khatre main hai’ (constitution in danger) slogan struck a chord, ensuring a substantial shift in the Dalit vote in Haryana during the Lok Sabha poll. But in a more localised state election, ‘samvidhan’ was not an issue as much as the Saini government’s various beneficiary schemes. The Dalit vote split this time, a crucial turnaround that gave the BJP an edge in several close contests.

5) The Congress’s chief ministerial tussle and internal factionalism only added to the party’s woes. The BJP too had its rebels and chief minister aspirants, but the BJP high command didn’t allow the squabbling to play out publicly beyond a point.

By contrast, the Congress’s leading Dalit face, Kumari Selja, was relegated to the margins in the campaign. Her public expression of disillusionment and anger only fed into the BJP narrative that the Congress in Haryana was a single family, single caste, anti-Dalit party on the ground. In hindsight, the Congress may have been better off putting up a collective leadership rather than showcasing only a 77-year-old two-time CM in Hooda and his son Deepinder as their sole mascots.

6) Over-confidence is dangerous in life and politics. In the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP paid a price for its ‘abki bar, char sau paar’ sloganeering. In the Haryana Vidhan Sabha poll, the Congress plank, “BJP jaa rahi hai, Congress aa rahi hai,” created a mood within the party almost as if the election was a ‘done deal’. It meant that when it came to strategising, from ticket distribution to booth connectivity, a certain complacency may have crept in, a belief that the party only needed to turn up on voting day and all would be well. Clearly, ‘khatakhat’ poll guarantees are not enough to woo voters.

7) In sharp contrast to the Congress, the BJP course was corrected between the Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections. From the top leadership to booth-level panna pramukhs, the party’s organisational machine plugged the gaps at every level, leaving nothing to chance.

Then, whether it was policy shifts like changing the ‘creamy layer’ criteria for OBC reservation or the more prosaic task of door-to-door voter connect, the BJP had the bench strength and the foot-soldiers to work on the ground. The party even took the risk of dropping a number of its sitting MLAs and ministers. By contrast, Congress did not change a single sitting legislator.

8) The BJP did not hesitate to use state power and resources where needed. While the Hoodas are resourceful politicians, the BJP leadership is unmatched in its ability to leverage the amoral ‘whatever it takes’ credo at election time. The manner in which Gurmeet Ram Rahim, a rape and murder convict, was given parole just before polling is a classic example. Just how many votes the Dera chief brought into the BJP’s kitty is unclear, but in a tight election even a few thousand votes matter.

9) The Congress’s decision not to tie up with any other INDIA ally, be it the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) or the Samajwadi party, may have in hindsight been a bad judgement call. The AAP only got a little over one per cent vote and didn’t win a single seat, but in an election where margins are narrow and every extra vote matters, a broader alliance on the ground might have sent the right message on the ground, at least in perceptional terms.

That Rahul Gandhi had pushed for an alliance but was reportedly over-ruled by the local leadership raises more questions over the Congress’s decision-making process.

10) In the final analysis, state elections in India are more often than not won through organisational strength. Rahul Gandhi’s yatras may have given Congress ideological clarity, but the party still can’t match the BJP’s ground game. This requires the micro-level detailing that 24x7 politicians like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have excelled in.

Until the Congress can rediscover its organisational core, it will keep playing catch up in direct fights with the BJP.

Post-script: Like all the pollsters, I too was among those who predicted an easy Congress win in Haryana. I, too, misjudged the competitive nature of the election and the BJP’s ability to win from a losing position. Mea culpa, mea maximum culpa.

(The writer is senior journalist and author. His new book, '2024: The Election That Surprised India', will be out soon.)