Yahya Sinwar's death: What remains of Hamas leadership?

All about the political and military structure of Hamas and what is left after a year of war in Gaza.

In Short

• Yahya Sinwar was mastermind of 7 October, 2023 attack on Israel
• Sinwar became Hamas political head after Ismail Haniyeh's death
• Yahya's brother Mohammed Sinwar leads race to succeed him as Hamas chief

The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader and the main architect of the brutal 7 October attack on Israelis last year, has raised questions about the future of the Gaza war. However, the more pressing issue is who will succeed him.

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) stated that Sinwar was killed in a chance encounter in the Rafah area of southern Gaza on Wednesday, 16 October. Recognised by both Israel and the United States as a key architect of Hamas's military strategy in Gaza, Sinwar had also assumed the role of the organisation's political leader two months ago, following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.

For months, he had evaded Israeli efforts to locate and kill him, efforts which had previously resulted in the deaths of other senior Hamas officials, including Haniyeh.

Sinwar’s hardline stance was seen as an obstacle to reaching a ceasefire and a hostage release agreement between Hamas and Israel. His death has now sparked some optimism, but much will depend on who succeeds him.

Leading the race are Sinwar’s brother Mohammed Sinwar, Hamas' political bureau member Mousa Abu Marzouk, and Khaled Mashal, the overall head of Hamas for more than a decade. The deputy head of Hamas' political bureau in Gaza, Khalil Al-Hayya, and Mahmoud al-Zahar, the Hamas government’s foreign minister, are also potential successors.

WHAT REMAINS OF HAMAS?

Eliminating Hamas leadership is a key Israeli objective in its war in Gaza. Israeli forces have virtually annihilated Hamas leadership, particularly leaders based in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.

Hamas’s military wing, known as the al-Qassam Brigades, has lost eight out of its top ten commanders in the Gaza Strip during the course of the war. Israel killed its chief, Marwan Issa, in March this year and claimed to have eliminated his successor, Mohamed Deif, a few months later in August. However, Hamas has not confirmed Deif’s death.

Of the 15-member leadership team in Gaza, Hamas has lost seven, while a few others have reportedly moved to Lebanon or Qatar, fearing assassination.

However, much of its political leadership remains intact. The European Council on Foreign Relations notes that Hamas’s politburo – the highest decision-making body – has 18 members. Of these, Sinwar, his predecessor Ismail Haniyeh, and deputy chairman Saleh al-Arouri were killed during the war.