Opinion: As Israel strikes Lebanon, can Iran sit it out?

While the situation has been escalating in the Gaza war, all eyes have been on Iran, waiting to see how it responds.

The war in Gaza has taken a dramatic turn over the past few weeks. Israel has rapidly revised its war strategy and despite calls for restraints and ceasefire, the conflict is now poised on a dangerous trajectory of escalation and “a point of no return”. In the past few days, as a result of Israel’s use of unconventional and asymmetric methods, Lebanon has suffered huge losses. Hezbollah, in return, has retaliated and with continuing strikes across both sides, there is little hope of restraint and peace right now.

It all started on September 17 and 18 when thousands of communication devices, primarily pagers, exploded mysteriously across multiple locations in Lebanon, killing at least 42 people and injuring more than 3,000. Most initial analyses point to a major intelligence success by Israel — a batch of almost 5,000 pagers ordered by Hezbollah was rigged with undetectable explosives that were activated through remote activation.

On September 23, however, events took a turn for the worse when Israel launched the most massive airstrike in Lebanon to date, killing 492 people and injuring over 1,645. Hezbollah responded and rained over 200 rockets into Israel striking deep, up to the city of Haifa — even some West Bank settlements near Tel Aviv.

These strikes were part of a carefully planned strategy. There are also strong inputs of Israel firming up plans for a ground invasion into Lebanon and several military formations have been directed towards the North in anticipation.

What happens now?

The last time the two nations locked horns was the 2006 Lebanon war, which involved a massive Israeli air strike and a subsequent ground invasion. Hezbollah paramilitary forces, though severely degraded by the airstrikes, held their ground, leading to a stalemate and ceasefire on August 14, 2006. During the war, Israel lost over 120 soldiers, whereas more than 1,100 died in Lebanon.

Could the current situation be a repeat of the same? Indications are that Israel has decided to “take the bull by its horns” and end the Hezbollah threat once and for all. Israel’s Defense Minister claimed that Israel is decimating all capabilities built by Hezbollah over the past 18 years and that Hassan Nasrallah will be left alone at the top, with his entire leadership structure wiped out.

Where does Iran stand?

While the situation has been escalating in the Gaza war, all eyes have been on Iran, waiting to see how it responds. Iran had vowed to avenge the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh on July 30 in Tehran. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was firm and clear about this.

However, weeks and months have passed and Iran has yet to retaliate. In its defence, Iran is not known to be quick in its response and often exacts revenge through proxy attacks.

Whether it was the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who was killed in January 2020 through a US drone strike in Baghdad, or the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a prominent nuclear scientist and often called the father of Iran’s covert nuclear weapons program in November 2020, or the killing of Quds Force General Sayyed Razi Mousavi in an Israeli airstrike in Damascus, Syria, on December 25, 2023, Iran did not directly retaliate.

It was only after Israel targeted its consulate in Damascus on April 1 this year that Iran finally shed its “strategic patience” and undertook a direct strike through a swarm of drones and missiles. It declared any future attack would be met by a swift and equal response — though a response to Haniyeh’s assassination is yet to materialise.

Reacting to the recent pager attacks on Hezbollah, Iran vowed revenge with IRGC commander-in-chief Hossein Salami stating Israel will face “a crushing response from the axis of resistance”. Once again, the Iranian response is awaited.

Can Iran wait any longer?

Iran has been the main support behind Hezbollah, both ideologically and militarily. In Israel’s war on Gaza, Iran has emerged as the sole protector of Palestinians, as others in the region, including Egypt and Jordan, watch red line after red line being crossed. Since the signing of the Saudi-Iran peace deal in March 2023, there has been a wave of reconciliation in the region with many countries re-opening embassies and even starting economic ties with it. Iran also benefitted from its growing ties with Russia and an entry into prominent multilateral forums like BRICS and SCO.

Iran realises that Israel has been baiting it to join the war directly since the beginning and except for a brief spat in April this year, it has so far, refrained and exercised caution. The question is: how long will Iran wait? As the rapidly evolving situation in Lebanon indicates, it won’t be long before ground action.

If Israel makes major gains in Lebanon, will Iran then keep waiting for the right moment? What will be the right moment if all its proxies and allies bordering Israel have been decimated? How will Iran ensure deterrence against Israel if Israel does not face any direct threat on its borders? What are the chances thereafter that Israel, supported by the US (especially if Donald Trump returns to power), takes the war directly to Iran?

If the situation continues to deteriorate in Lebanon, Iran may have no option but to join the battle. But will it be too late by then? Would it have lost the initiative and many Hezbollah lives before it stepped in?

This war is set to change the political and security landscape of the region forever. The ongoing elections in the US and the resultant indecision have given Israel a perfect window of a few months to do what it wants to achieve its politico-military objectives. If Iran intends to stop it and retain the strategic advantage that it has so far enjoyed across the Levant, it will have to make quick and big strategic decisions soon.

(Colonel Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and West Asia expert. During his service, he has been the Director of Military Intelligence and Director of the Ministry of External Affairs)

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)