'Kamala-Trump Race Is Very Close'

'If Trump wins the election, there's not going to be much turmoil.'
'But if he loses, he will not accept the results.'
'And if it is close, which I think it's going to be, he's going to contest it.'
'But at the end of the day, the truth will prevail.'

IMAGE: Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris acknowledges supporters as Vice-Presidential candidate Tim Walz applauds next to her at a campaign rally and concert in Ann Arbor, Michigan, October 28, 2024. Photograph: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Shekar Narasimhan has fought a hard campaign on Kamala Harris's behalf.

The co-chair of the Democratic National Committee's Indo American Council, and chair of AAPI Victory Fund, a PAC (political action committee), which wants more Asian Americans and Pacific islanders in elected offices, admits the race is yet close, and puts it down to the ability of Donald Trump's campaign to push their narrative.

Narasimhan, who has worked with the Democratic presidential elections since 2004, and who influenced President Biden's agenda, spoke to Rediff.com US Senior Contributor P Rajendran about the closeness of the US election and what it augurs for the country.

Part 1 of a fascinating conversation:

This is the end of the campaign season and things are looking really close, right?

They are very close.

So, what are your feelings about the Harris campaign?

Elections are won by voters. We have seven states where the election is decided. I would say all seven are within the margin of error, and there is a small undecided component.

It depends on where you go. I've personally been in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the last two weeks and just going and talking to voters.

It just doesn't feel like there are a lot of undecided voters out there.

I'm not just talking to Democrats, even in my [small] sample size, [but] I don't find a lot of undecided [voters]. My sample says there's less than 2% undecided.

So for the sake of argument, the election has ended 48-48 [percent]. There's two percent that are going to go -- either ballots that are unwritten or for a third party candidate... Or something.

Here's my optimism about that two percent and why I think Kamala Harris will win.

But it's going to be a squeaker.

The thing is that Trump is extremely resilient. Just yesterday (October 27), comedian Tony Hinchcliffe spoke disparagingly at Trump's Madison Square Gardens rally about Puerto Ricans.
While there is a lot of outrage, what usually happens is people accept it, say he didn't say it, or translate the argument in different terms.
The Trump campaign seems to have a resilience with these things in a fashion the Harris campaign doesn't.

Yeah, but that has always been the case. I mean that has not changed. We can have 34 criminal indictments and nobody mentioned it. It doesn't matter.

Because what they have is a very good propaganda machine that almost gets in front of the facts and makes up an alternative set of facts, so that when the facts come out it's, like, oh well, so what? One more person accused him of some sexual assault. Big deal. Twenty-five years ago. We've already been through all that.

Rather than call it resilience, I would say it's because of the narrative that they managed to spread beforehand.

That it doesn't really matter. [The campaign says] they don't speak for Trump; Trump isn't actually like that.

There's a report called Project 2025 that was done by the Heritage Foundation. One hundred and sixty former Trump officials wrote this.... But [Trump] repudiates it and says, hey, I haven't read it.

Which by the way, is 912 pages. There's a very good chance he hasn't read it. He says, I don't know if I agree with all of it or any of it, I don't know, it might be an idea, too.

Everybody accepts that and says, okay, that's fine, it can't be true.

But I think the narrative on the other side is the other way, which is whatever [Harris] says, is wrong].

If you can analyze it to death and find fault with it, go ahead.

So there's a true double standard right now. Some people blame it upon the narrative shift, some people say it's sexism. It kind of doesn't matter.

But I guess what I am saying is, I am looking at simple arithmetic. On the ground, it would appear there are very few undecided voters. Our job is to get them to break for us.

If 80% of them broke for us, in this very tight election, we would win by 1.6% in the background states on average.

That is what I expected, that somewhere between half percent to two percent would be the margin and that we're going to win six out of seven of this case.

IMAGE: Republican presidential nominee and former US president Donald J Trump speaks during an election rally in Atlanta, Georgia, October 28, 2024. Photograph: Cheney Orr/Reuters

If it comes to half percent, would there be a lot of turmoil, possibly the involvement of the House, right, and the Senate? The possibility of contingent elections and all those kinds of options.

Let's be very clear about this. If Trump wins the election, there's not going to be much turmoil. True, there's going to be a lot of angst and a lot of nail-biting and worry.

But if he loses, he will not accept the results. He's already said that. He's going to say that.

And if it is close, which I think it's going to be, he's going to contest it. But at the end of the day, the truth will prevail.

He should exit the stage and go back to whatever life he chooses to have.

Earlier when Kamala Harris came into the picture, you were a lot more confident that this thing would go smoothly.
Are you really tired now, with the difficulty of managing, working on the campaign?

No, I think that it has been a phenomenal campaign.

It is, you know, in a hundred days, the way we were before this happened, We were basically going to be in three states and the battle is going to be fought and one is just three places, okay, with the addition of the Nebraska 2nd District.

IMAGE: Kamala Harris applauds from behind a safety glass during a campaign rally and concert in Ann Arbor, Michigan, October 28, 2024. Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

But that's going to be an independent, right?

Correct. That's the one vote that gets you to 270 for a Democrat. You win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan plus Nebraska's 2nd District.

With Kamala Harris on the scene right now, they are campaigning in seven states. The opportunity set for us to win in many of those states is very high.

It's a completely different race. So no, I tend to be very optimistic.

The field is spread. There is an enormous amount of energy out there every single place we go. We had 200 people at a Saturday morning event in Georgia getting ready to get out and knock doors.

So we have seen a surge of energy and enthusiasm that I haven't seen since 2008. So I don't think there's any comparison between the two campaigns.

I don't think, honestly, that anybody thought it could be this close. But it is close because this is a former president. He has a base.

There is a Republican party which is willing to close its eyes and forgive him all his sins.

And this is a brand new candidate that emerged who is known to the public ... and has run a phenomenal 100-day campaign.

So I am not dispirited at all.

I am shocked that the map is this large, that Donald Trump is having to campaign in seven days still. A hundred days ago he thought he had already won it. But is it close? Yes.

Is it going to be close? Most likely yes.

But the late-breaking vote are more likely to swing our way than his. And if they swing, as I hope and expect they will, we're going to win this thing, and it's going to be more convincing than people thought, because it will be widespread.

It will be in the South, it will be in the West, and it will be in the Midwest.

IMAGE: Donald J Trump and Pastor Paula White gesture during the National Faith Advisory Summit in Powder Springs, Georgia, October 28, 2024. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

And your hopes for the Senate, are they still strong? Given what we talked about earlier about Florida, right, it actually came into play for some time.

So Florida and Texas are all those, I call them the teaser states. They tease you. They tickle you. They tickle your fancy. You feel like, oh my god I can do that.

And then, you know, they always flip away. They're ruby red.

You know, there's a pretty good chance, I would say, the idea, the concept of a divided government has not escaped my mind, let's put it that way.

I think that we have, there is a distinct possibility we will win the presidency and the House and lose the Senate.

Now I could be wrong. The late-breaking vote could determine this election and the fate of the country.

So I wouldn't give up hope that we end up at 50-50, but I would say the chances that that happens are less than winning the House.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com