Trump Media Stock, Prediction Markets Move on Eve of Election Day

Key Takeaways

• Trump Media stock ended Monday higher as volatility in the stock continues ahead of Tuesday's presidential vote.
• Some investors have turned to prediction markets, while others have looked to crypto markets, with bitcoin down from its highs last week.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) closed Monday higher, shaking off earlier losses to extend a volatile stretch of trading for the company that has become a measure of investors’ moods ahead of Election Day.

The company, parent of Truth Social and majority owned by former President Donald Trump, is far from the only vehicle for election betting. Some investors have turned to prediction markets, while others have looked to crypto markets. Trump Media has lately been a high-profile example of the action ahead of tomorrow, though.

Trading on little in the way of company news, the stock last week both rose 40% above the previous week’s close and fell more than 20% below it. Trading in the shares was hit with halts several times along the way, and the company’s multibillion-dollar market cap vacillated. 

The stock continued its back-and-forth trading Monday, finishing the day up some 12% to over $34.

Recent polling seen by some analysts as beneficial to Trump’s principal opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, may have shifted some traders’ bets earlier in the session—a dynamic also seen on prediction markets that, while generally indicating a belief in a Trump victory, have also moved somewhat toward Harris in recent days. 

Bitcoin (BTC), which has outperformed the S&P 500 in recent months, has lately pulled back from recent highs; investors generally see Trump as more crypto-friendly, though his Harris has also signaled support for the industry. 

Bitcoin was trading below $68,000 recently, more than $5,000 below its highs from last week.

Some single stocks have also become particularly linked with the outcome of the election. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is an outspoken Trump supporter, and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who has an “outperform” rating on the EV maker’s shares, suggested a range of election scenarios that could affect the stock. These include the possibility of a trade war with China that could weigh on Tesla sales in that market but also a more welcoming environment for the company’s autonomy initiatives, Ives said in a note Sunday.

If, instead of or in addition to, wagering on election outcomes, you’re interested in the policies that the election might produce, here are Investopedia’s roundups of the economic policies espoused by Trump and Harris. 

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