Israel’s Attacks on Hezbollah Intensify but Stop Short of All-Out War

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Israel’s Attacks on Hezbollah Intensify but Stop Short of All-Out War

Israel is attempting a risky strategy, increasing the intensity of its attacks in an attempt to force Hezbollah to back down, while raising the chances of an aggressive response that devolves into a land war.

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By Patrick Kingsley

reporting from Jerusalem

Exploding pagers on Tuesday. Detonating walkie-talkies on Wednesday. An unusually intense barrage of bombs on Thursday. And a huge strike on southern Beirut on Friday.

Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia, this week constitute a significant escalation in the 11-month war between the two sides. For nearly a year, Israel and Hezbollah have fought a low-level conflict, mostly along the Israeli-Lebanese border, that has gradually gathered force without ever exploding into an all-out war.

Now, Israel is attempting a riskier playbook. It has markedly increased the intensity of its attacks in an attempt to force Hezbollah to back down, while raising the chances of the opposite outcome: a more aggressive response from Hezbollah that devolves into an unbridled land war.

Israel has sabotaged Hezbollah’s communications devices, blowing up hundreds, if not thousands, of them in a widespread cyberattack. Its fighter jets have pounded southern Lebanon with rare intensity. And on Friday afternoon, they struck Beirut, the Lebanese capital, for the first time since July — killing a senior Hezbollah military commander, according to Israeli officials, and collapsing two buildings, according to Lebanese officials.

Yet, despite the escalation, the fundamental balance between the two sides appeared to remain unchanged on Friday afternoon, at least for the time being.

Israel’s moves fell short of a decisive blow, humiliating Hezbollah and spreading horror through Lebanese society, but so far failing to coerce the militia into changing course.

The militia launched more short-range strikes on northern Israel on Friday, hours after its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, pledged to continue its campaign until Israel ends its parallel conflict in Gaza, which began with deadly Hamas-led attacks on Israel in October. But the strikes this week appeared to be tit-for-tat attacks of the kind have been conducted for 11 months.

Hezbollah has pledged a specific response to Israel’s attacks on its pagers and walkie-talkies, which killed at least 37 people and injured thousands more. But it has not set a time frame for retaliation, a possible sign that, with so many of its operatives in the hospital, the group is still taking stock of its losses.

Israel’s leaders have said the conflict has entered a new phase, with Yoav Gallant, the defense minister, promising on Thursday that Hezbollah would pay an increasing price “as time goes by.” But he stopped well short of pledging a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

The Israeli military has said it moved a paratrooper division to northern Israel but does not appear to be on the cusp of a major ground maneuver, even as its air force and intelligence agencies scale up their attacks.

For now, both the conflict in Lebanon and the war in Gaza are stuck in limbo: The Israel-Hezbollah conflict seems unlikely to ease without a truce in Gaza, and negotiations to reach that truce have ground nearly to a halt amid persistent differences between Israel and Hamas.

Both conflicts appear far from a military resolution, too. For all its new moves, Israel still seems several steps away from a decisive military blow in Lebanon, and has failed to achieve one in Gaza, despite decimating Hamas’s forces there. The group still holds dozens of hostages in the pockets of Gaza that it controls, preventing Israel from declaring victory.

Rawan Sheikh Ahmad and Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting.

Our Coverage of the Middle East Crisis

• Between Technical Might and Strategic Fog: In Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, Israel has shown it’s capable of extraordinary acts of espionage, but is struggling to define long-term goals, according to Israeli analysts and public figures.
• Israel Bombards Hezbollah: The Israeli military carried out dozens of airstrikes against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The strikes came hours after Hezbollah’s leader vowed that “retribution will come” to Israel after audacious attacks on Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies.
• Device Attacks in Lebanon: A day after pagers exploded across Lebanon, a second wave of deadly blasts rocked the country, as hand-held radios carried by Hezbollah members blew up.
• A New Era in Sabotage: The attacks in Lebanon required getting deep into the supply chain, which is difficult to do. But the sabotage contributes to a sense of vulnerability that ordinary devices can become a source of danger.
• Hamas’s Future in Gaza: One of Hamas’s most senior officials said in an interview that the militant group expects to play a decisive role in the enclave when the war with Israel is over.