In Tulkarm, in the Israeli occupied West Bank, in September. The stated Western goal of an independent Palestinian state looks more fanciful than ever, analysts say.
Credit...Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

Yahya Sinwar Is Dead, but a Palestinian State Still Seems Distant

A two-state solution remains the goal of the United States and the West, but many in the region say the devastation in Gaza and the lack of effective Palestinian leadership make it a remote prospect.

by · NY Times

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The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has raised hopes in the Biden administration that it could help pave the way for the eventual creation of a Palestinian state.

But in many ways the goal of an independent Palestinian state seems further away than ever. In Gaza, there has been death and destruction on a devastating scale. There is a lack of a clear and solid Palestinian leadership. And Israel is grappling with its own trauma over the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7.

President Biden is hoping Mr. Sinwar’s death can bring about a temporary cease-fire in Gaza and the return of Israeli hostages, while producing a path toward negotiations on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel — the so-called two-state solution. But it is unclear who can speak for Hamas now in Gaza, or even if the group really knows where all the hostages are or how many remain alive.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has vowed to continue the war against Hamas as he prosecutes another conflict against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and also to retaliate against Iran. Since Oct. 7, he has repeatedly ruled out the possibility of a two-state solution, and the stability of his coalition government is dependent on far-right ministers who oppose a Palestinian state of any kind.

All that makes the prospect of Israel agreeing to a serious negotiation on a Palestinian state extremely unlikely, said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Gazan scholar who is a visiting professor at Northwestern University.

“Netanyahu has said many times lately that a Palestinian state would endanger the security of Israel,” said Mr. Abusada. “With the radical part of Israel now in power, it’s not on their agenda.”

The Oslo Accords of the 1990s, the peace framework aimed at resolving the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, were supposed to lead to an independent Palestine. The Palestinian Authority that was established under the accords was meant to be an interim body exercising limited Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. But it was ousted from Gaza by Hamas in 2007, controls only a part of the West Bank, and is seen by Palestinians as corrupt and ineffective.

In recent years, amid cycles of violence, hopes of a two-state solution had receded. After Oct. 7 and Israel’s devastating response in Gaza, the issue has again been pressed by the United States and Europe, as well as some countries in the Middle East, as the best way of achieving a sustainable and secure peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Saudi Arabia, for one, insists that any recognition of Israel hinges on a credible pathway toward a viable and independent Palestinian state.

But even if Mr. Netanyahu were to change tack, analysts say, the fragmented and weak Palestinian leadership would be a serious impediment to progress on the issue.

Any agreement would require a broad-based Palestinian leadership, including the agreement of Hamas, to advocate and support the idea, said Mouin Rabbani, a nonresident fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies, based in Doha. “But the Palestinian Authority has more or less forfeited any legitimacy it might have had. And I expect Hamas now will adopt an even more radical line.”

The insistence by the United States and European nations on continuing to press for a two-state solution ignored that vacuum in Palestinian leadership and the radicalizing impact of the Gazan war on Palestinian politics, he said.

The “two-state solution is a fig leaf that allows the U.S. and Europe to pretend they’re serious about solving the issue without recognizing the changes in the reality on the ground that contradict the possibility of attaining that goal,” Mr. Rabbani said.

Complicating the issue is the rapid growth of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, as well as intensified raids in the territory by Israel following the Oct. 7 attack.

“No one who lives in the occupied territory, especially the West Bank, would believe in a two-state solution,” said Ali Jarbawi, a political science professor at Birzeit University in the West Bank.

Right now, he said, “the most difficult thing in the world is to be a moderate Palestinian.”

The greatest impact of the death of Mr. Sinwar and the weakening of Hamas may be on Palestinian politics.

Mr. Jarbawi said that when he talked to Hamas officials, they were aware the organization had suffered a severe blow and would require many years to recover. They also acknowledged that Hamas could not rule Gaza on its own.

But Hamas can still obstruct any arrangement it dislikes, he noted. “It doesn’t take more than one person and one pistol,” Mr. Jarbawi said.

Israeli, American, Saudi, Egyptian and Gulf officials have been discussing trying to install Salam Fayyad, 72, as prime minister to run the reconstruction of Gaza once the fighting ends. Mr. Fayyad has already served in the role from 2007 to 2013. He was pushed out after policy disagreements with the Palestinian Authority’s longtime president, Mahmoud Abbas, who is 88 and deeply unpopular, but shows no sign of giving up power.

Installing Mr. Fayyad could prompt Arab states to provide billions in aid, which could help him win support among desperate Gazans, even as Israel insists on retaining security control over the borders.

But Mr. Jarbawi, who worked with Mr. Fayyad in government and says he respects him, worries that “Palestinians will see him as America’s man, carrying out the American and Emirati agenda.” That, he says, is “difficult for them to swallow.”

Other analysts say that efforts to affect Palestinian politics by outside parties — Iran, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Israel itself — had reinforced and enhanced factionalism, harming Palestinian unity.

Hamas’s blows against Israel have made Hamas more popular among Palestinians, especially in the West Bank, and its views could no longer be ignored by Mr. Abbas and his government, Mr. Jarbawi said.

Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator on the Middle East now at the Carnegie Endowment, said the gaps between Israel and Palestinians over the details of a deal on a two-state solution had not narrowed since his last effort to negotiate them, 24 years ago, at the 2000 Camp David summit.

“The gaps then were as wide as the Grand Canyon, and the traumas of Oct. 7 and the asymmetrical trauma, death and misery inflicted on the Palestinians will make the space for bold thinking and acting very, very hard,” he said.

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